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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。* Q( Q; `* o+ I2 o3 j3 u4 _
/ J4 O. |2 L% T1 W S8 Y但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。- W8 y4 h, P/ L" D
( ]. G" ]9 S7 z b* X( r( e' v4 H7 GUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市+ p# Y* Y0 J' v3 }: Q! _/ |
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。7 @' X" V( ]# a% v. b
8 D# }% A @( X4 j来源：Alphractal/ f8 v0 C/ l, G: K0 U' B& s
6 f% ?: p/ l- g( J15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。1 W( E* @; K. K" Q3 _9 Y8 C3 F
6 |, U4 _8 K4 o4 K事情变得有趣了
# _9 I8 o; C4 eBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。) q Z5 g5 @% }8 l$ [
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来源：X' O; B2 b0 u* M' k4 t$ W
+ P. Q6 g1 ]+ d: I根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。. M/ d6 W/ S" V" B. q
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。1 N5 o, V) \# d \% G
" m' K5 R4 a1 H! | W随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
1 A# b( n! z! v
. m6 h1 T7 F0 L6 G! ]. h1 L空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力2 ^8 P( ~9 F2 B/ t6 I
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。% P+ j+ I; l, j) v6 f
+ |. Z' _; `4 a来源：TradingView
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: V3 a( g0 e0 k P# ]+ h日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。# E% N; M1 C# ]. ?1 k7 M
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。) X+ R7 [4 L7 T# k9 L
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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