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比特币面临长期持有者的缓慢抛售，投资者逐步获利，这表明市场周期已趋于成熟和稳定。2 G X3 z" p; z# `* P- y% G2 ~
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分析人士表示，比特币的抛售压力来自谨慎的长期持有者，而不是恐慌性抛售者，这表明市场趋势更加成熟。8 ^2 A1 P- y" W
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尽管交易所交易产品、企业和机构投资者都表现出强劲的买盘兴趣，但比特币近期维持上涨势头的艰难仍在持续。在X上分享的一份详细分析中，克里斯·库珀特许金融分析师（CFA）解释说，目前的抛售压力主要来自长期持有者，也就是所谓的“HODLers”，他们在多年积累后正在慢慢获利了结。! E+ ?) l+ j k& s$ O& M+ K
4 U' _4 M& d! E2 e广告
% ^1 r! |/ ^ t p! `" q链上数据显示，这种抛售并非恐慌性抛售，而是行为的渐进和可控转变，反映了更加成熟的市场动态。( ^# @8 Q. R0 H' h6 q0 b
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长期持有者正在缓慢获利了结: y2 q2 }9 n; X( O' k* C
库珀强调了一个特定的链上指标的重要性：比特币一年以上未活跃交易的百分比。历史上，该指标在熊市期间会上升，因为投资者会持有比特币；而在牛市期间，由于持有者在价格上涨时抛售，该指标会急剧下降。然而，这一次的趋势更为平缓。数据显示，该指标并未出现急剧下降，而是呈现出缓慢而持续的下降趋势，即便在……比特币的价格略有上涨。* ?) O( @4 L r8 M; }. f4 @! s3 c
/ K! s/ b: c8 ]# Z2 l* x2 v7 g" m$ i# D这一趋势表明，长期持有者正在逐步实现利润，而不是一次性抛售。库珀认为，这种行为与目前横盘整理的市场状况相符，投资者行事谨慎，等待更明确的信号后再进行大举操作。
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0 P3 ]" X' M6 P: E# f1 A6 F5 a投资者疲劳和年末调整
& V4 \5 \' P4 c @库伊珀认为，部分销售放缓的原因是投资者疲劳。比特币近期的表现低于预期。黄金和标普500指数双双下跌，令投资者失望，他们原本预期在比特币四年周期的牛市阶段能获得更强劲的回报。许多人曾预期10月和11月会出现一波上涨行情，这两个月通常是比特币的季节性上涨行情，但这一波行情并未出现。
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另请阅读：0 z* g! N* j' j0 M- ]
比特币价格本周会跌破 10 万美元吗？
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因此，一些长期持仓者已开始锁定利润，并在年底前调整仓位，这很可能是为了税务筹划和投资组合再平衡。这种失望情绪与务实决策相结合，导致了持续的抛售压力，但并未出现恐慌性抛售，因为市场参与者比以往周期更加谨慎地管理风险。
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! s. s: b, D$ C( k. d" L更成熟的市场周期$ c) E% Z8 k" |( Q8 t; U
在库伊珀的分析基础上，胡里奥·莫雷诺CryptoQuant 研究主管提供的数据支持了这一观点，数据显示，比特币一年非活跃供应量（衡量长期持有者活跃度的指标）在 2021 年和当前的 2024-2025 年周期中仅下降了 10 个百分点，而 2017-2018 年期间的降幅则高达 20 个百分点。3 U' N* r0 S$ u
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莫雷诺的研究结果证实，本轮抛售是可控且有序的，反映出投资者群体经验更加丰富，比特币市场也日趋成熟。尽管价格走势较为平缓，但两位分析师一致认为比特币的基本面依然强劲，一旦卖方力量耗尽，就可能为下一轮显著的价格反弹铺平道路。4 c7 x+ M0 d' r+ d$ y
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当前离线
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长期持有者逐步抛售比特币，市场趋于成熟和稳定，潜在买入机会呼之欲出 |
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