Array
(
[fid] => 6980
[description] =>
[password] =>
[icon] =>
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 75
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6845,6879,1121,6980
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 4
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
)
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 4
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[status] => 1
[required] => 0
[listable] => 0
[types] => Array
(
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] =>
[postperm] =>
[replyperm] =>
[getattachperm] =>
[postattachperm] =>
[postimageperm] =>
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:0:"";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6974
[type] => sub
[name] => 币圈资讯
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 0
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 111861
[posts] => 111933
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 56
[oldrank] => 56
[lastpost] => 2804591 安永：钱包将成下一代金融核心入口，掌控钱包即掌控客户关系 1770473827 比推快讯
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 0
[jammer] => 0
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 0
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
|
Bitwise 顾问复盘 2 月 5 日暴跌：比特币下挫或源于传统金融去杠杆，而非加密基本面
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
比推消息， Bitwise 顾问 Jeff Park 发文复盘 2 月 5 日比特币及加密市场的剧烈下跌，认为此次波动更可能由传统金融体系的风险去化与衍生品机制触发，而非加密行业自身基本面或单一“黑天鹅”事件。
Jeff Park 指出，当日比特币 ETF，尤其是 IBIT，出现创纪录的成交量与期权交易活动，且期权成交明显以看跌方向为主。同时，比特币价格走势在此前数周与软件股等风险资产高度相关。2 月 4 日被高盛主经纪商（PB）部门标记为多策略基金极端回撤的一天，随后风险管理要求快速、无差别去杠杆，这一过程波及比特币相关头寸，并在 2 月 5 日进一步放大跌幅。
他分析称，尽管价格两日内一度下跌逾 13%，市场原本预期会出现大规模 ETF 资金流出，但实际数据显示比特币 ETF 整体反而录得净申购，IBIT 新增约 600 万份额，规模增加逾 2.3 亿美元。这表明抛压主要来自“纸面资金”与对冲、做市相关的非方向性交易，而非长期资金撤离。
Jeff Park 进一步提出假设认为：多资产组合在高相关性环境下被迫去杠杆，其中包含了对冲后的比特币风险敞口；期权与基差交易的快速平仓引发短伽马效应，迫使交易对手在下跌过程中卖出 IBIT，从而加剧波动，但并未形成实质性长期资金外流。随着 2 月 6 日部分中性策略回补仓位，比特币价格出现反弹。
他总结称，此轮下跌更可能是传统金融体系风险管理与衍生品机制共振的结果，而非加密市场自身结构性恶化。后续几日 ETF 净流向的变化，将成为判断是否有新增长期需求的重要观察指标。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
