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本帖为抢楼帖，欢迎抢楼!
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几率这个总是平等的 但是还是这次出了，下次粗的概率就是会小了很多 |
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! c: \2 \4 X) O; F$ R1 m: U" D
有时候靠几率也是会害死人的 |
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1/2概率游戏在理论上讲输赢都应该是50对50，输赢各半的结果，但是玩起来却明显不是那回事。$ H' Y1 f6 e6 e% \
# p# e! u; K. S8 {2 D1 O/ a这个我来告诉你吧。。50对50，输赢是对半，但是我们真正玩起来，许许多多的人却感觉是输的多。。
6 h' g4 ?! Y: _9 b) t. {0 L& n7 K$ I& O% [- M
为什么？0 L5 `" M7 g8 k5 a# o9 a
$ k- _+ M8 ^2 [, F6 `+ n
1、因为下注的次数太多了（任何人都逃不过5050）。如果只玩一把肯定是5050。+ y3 Z7 m" j* \2 J
2、因为资金问题。如果资金一样，也可能是5050。
& w! G# Y: T+ S# |! `; s) Z( \ 假如你只有最后一个码了，而你打的是平注。。每一把输赢都是50比50。
$ ]$ P$ ~ |: t- I. u 第一把赢，你有两个码，平注，无限继续下去的话，你输光的概率是1/4; F) P1 V" |8 w B: g* t, b
第一把输，你没有了。
: u; }( n5 I$ T: {/ `: t 第二把赢，你有三个码，平注，无限继续下去的话，你输光的概率是1/8。
, J6 w3 Z8 S( F" C, f( w& k. O 第二把输赢，你还可以继续。。
, C/ o+ S7 V" U1 E6 P" }2 g …………无限下去。8 U/ L x, D' b) i
清袋的概念，不是50比50。。而是1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16+1/32……
7 n- f" Q" M& @2 d3 Z0 {) Z F0 d v. l! @2 Q8 F6 C( Z
是多少你自己算吧。。这还不算抽水呢。。
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& _1 ?# E% T7 a! j" x3 Y- \, O这就是总是输的原因。。
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: f) D8 r2 O4 a: n+ i) B为什么我还要继续玩下去呢？？, w) U- L3 l' A" K$ ?. H( K" l
5 \6 Y8 i# \; Z5 b9 W% \; b1、我觉得可以打偏差。. u1 l- q" m' w/ ]3 f; l/ O
2、存送1%，返水1%，加上我只想取入场的1%。我觉得我应该就是DC。。
5 O6 h0 E. H' h) @/ t" L5 O7 l% A) h$ ~
但是，这，，，只是理论，实践考虑的因素更多。。5 f& _+ j% P5 r6 }, T
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人的心态不可控，人的行为不可控，人的习惯不可控。。 |
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大家说的50对50指的是每次下注时的选择，所以我们每次下注都要做一次选择，运气不好的话，就会连续选择错误，也就是连黑了 |
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5050 的说法是不对的，在正常的不作弊的情况下，庄家还有抽水的比例呀。 |
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菠菜的公平之处在于机率各占一半，庄家之所以占优当然是因为抽水了，反复的抽水导致玩家大部分都输钱。 |
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