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本帖最后由 实习版主2 于 2019-7-3 13:59 编辑
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+ z+ d: d ~' A7 z2 n; A$ g主场优势对菠菜投注有哪些影响？（转）7 A+ W* @3 Q8 P( d" S9 @
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在足球比赛中，球队在主场的成绩往往要比客场或中立场地更好，人们通常把这归结为“主场优势”。统计数据指出，自1888年以来每一个足球联赛赛季，主队得分均比客队多。但因为足球队伍的实力从根本上存在不平衡，某些队伍的主场优势较大，某些较小，所以还是无法得出统一的主场优势让分。
3 g4 c2 _# Q+ g @* i既然球队主场得分更多，那影响主场优势的因素又有那些呢？ ' r! |$ }4 V! x" z8 d
首先需要引起注意的便是主场球迷对主场优势的影响。英超赛场上，利物浦的主场安菲尔德球场以良好的球迷氛围闻名，“You'll never walk alone”的歌声更是响彻球场。除了2013/14赛季，利物浦表现出了争冠的实力外，其余赛季也仅仅是为欧联杯资格而战。对于相同规模的俱乐部，利物浦总体表现不佳，不过尽管联赛成绩不佳，但红军的主场优势仍比托特纳姆热刺高。
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其次，球队对于球场的熟悉程度也影响到了主场优势。2006/07赛季，阿森纳将主场从海布里球场搬到了酋长球场。在这次“搬家”之前，阿森纳在1997/98赛季崭露头角，在2005/06赛季结束前夺得五个英超冠军。在此期间，他们的平均主场优势是1.51。自从来到酋长球场以来，阿森纳的平均主场优势便跌至1.23。如果对比转场前和转场后的赛季，就能明显发现转场的影响，因为每一个人都要适应新的环境。不过阿森纳近几个赛季的主场优势正在逐渐上升，说明他们现在感觉酋长球场是他们的“主场”。
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除了上述两点因素之外，对主场优势影响较多的便是裁判因素，通常主队都能从裁判那里得到微小的优待。这种偏爱并非故意为之，而是出于人类情感，因为裁判会吸收现场观众的真实感情，有时无意识地做出偏向于附近喧闹的观众的决策。另外，主队更有可能获得点球机会，尤其是来自没有经验的裁判。因此，建立裁判档案对于预测比赛结果也非常重要。 n. z: n* i) D2 D+ F
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说了这么多主场优势，那主场优势又是如何得出的呢？
- {" l2 x; R! H0 b4 O计算主场优势需将每一赛季的主场进球数减去主场丢球数，然后除以赛季中已踢的主场比赛次数。例如，上赛季夺冠的切尔西，他的主场进球数为36球，丢球数为9球，相减后除以19个主场，所得出的主场优势便是1.42。上赛季排名第3的阿森纳，他的主场进球数为41球，丢球数为14球，主场优势同样为1.42。利物浦上赛季的主场进球数为30球，丢球数为20球，主场优势则为0.52。热刺虽然比利物浦排名靠前，但热刺上赛季的主场进球数为31球，丢球数为24球，主场优势只有0.36。( i6 U+ u" [' G4 r1 q
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在了解了主场优势的计算方法后，我们便可以运用到每场比赛之中，并且主场优势对于亚盘玩法来说参考价值很大。如果球队的主场让分小于主场优势，下注是一个明智的决定——尽管这只是平衡的菠菜策略中要考虑的因素之一。
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