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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。' L1 v- M( A K
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。5 J0 E6 A: I7 g9 t) V
1 O! W% W2 r# J k0 V1 A比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”/ @. e# X2 W; r! ~
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。2 o' k) ?2 ]7 l, N* k" J
1 k! L2 a/ h# z- C' ~# |就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。* t7 [! B" C- x
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：! E: ~& Y: }. S) c* {
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”6 r) s' K" h! {) f" t+ P- A
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。+ b. N- E' P: T0 |
) M4 ~: {2 b8 `即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。* r" T: b+ g/ U0 ]
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。0 f v. Q; Y6 E0 R3 a
) q% w' Z7 K# G7 W2 K“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”6 s6 }4 I# x$ E+ a0 @
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底部预测不断出现
) }( N: n& N/ \$ s8 l7 K ]0 C与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。4 F! Z% g0 K/ x( o/ t; g; r
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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( D% D" P% A- r( CBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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7 @, E. u }/ n) s: Z" N0 C上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。4 |5 i# q+ I' m
+ R2 Q# f4 ~; }! }0 L7 ^9 A0 t9 h+ F8 c卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。 [8 ?' I* k( L! i; Q
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。0 g6 S4 T6 K0 ]
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