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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
0 ] [2 u n8 k- z以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. 5 `2 d. U3 W' D; n* b' O( m) L
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 * j, k; x; \5 M% \! ] ~
以太坊基金集体亏损 ' n7 y/ A- `+ c) M: {
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
9 a7 U9 \: G' L: }4 `与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 / ]# H2 c T# u' B
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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j( k: _ F! T) i' }编辑切换为居中
A2 l0 M" b; l0 n流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
% [4 K1 F# V% _+ x2 ]! k! M' {这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 3 Q7 D0 O: r3 t" f4 h) V; Y& v
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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编辑切换为居中 3 o6 }' \: F1 {. P2 C. R
6月5日的TVL以太坊
* L E& v- O$ [$ a但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
7 E$ S6 q0 u& t* l! x# Z5 f宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
. M/ Y5 `7 r- F l男性讲述金融时报:
2 S2 \1 X/ A0 n" ]: ?* W5 T“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
6 a& t. R( ?8 [' U呆滞的技术面
# ~- i# O9 _( r3 W自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 : X8 S4 Z ]) e
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 ) g2 k5 U' m; X, I( P
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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编辑切换为居中 8 \, ^! ~6 {! Q" h6 ]" O
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
' J6 {2 z$ T7 D如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 ! C4 v B# E. b: z% Z6 s- ~" C) P
交易所的ETH储备正在增加 ; @9 B, p: {) v! q6 T; o
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. 4 z7 |$ m% N1 `/ k' @/ N. A
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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编辑切换为居中
; s* g( Y* j. W$ B# O7 F, |以太坊外汇储备
1 J% \5 ?+ u7 \9 W% K7 W; \. G通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
$ Z$ I' O: ]: J3 [来源：金色财经 |
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