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大饼突破23000点 加密市场回暖OR诱多？
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自6.19以来，大饼开始筑底震荡，期间多次试探底部，最低价跌破18000点，整体在20000点上下波动，震荡区间18000-22000点，之间反复在文章中给大家提及，大饼只有突破这个震荡箱体区间才有可能迎来变盘行情。
图1：btc-4h
如上图所示，4小时级别来看，btc已经向上突破了22000的箱体上边沿，同时有效突破了该级别的ma250的关键阻力位，上涨行情已开启，均线保持多头排列，币价盘中突破23000点，最高价触及23864点，较阶段低点17622点已累计反弹上涨35%。
虽然比特币价格回升至23,000美元以上，但不少业内分析认为本次短期上涨是“假象”，加密市场或将走向新低。加密货币分析师Dylan LeClair透露，目前仍有数以万计的BTC空头未平仓头寸仍存在，尤其是在6月15日至7月15日期间新开设了大量比特币空头头寸，这意味着尽管比特币短期内也许会进一步上涨，但仍有可能逆转走势并再次走低。
从技术层面来讲，大饼这次向上突破23000点，日线级别已经三连阳，一定程度上是有调整需求的，只要能调整至22000点上方会再次出现不错的二次上车点，这个是说给所有已经错过了第一次上车的粉丝朋友们，目前还没有出现回调上车机会，可以继续耐心等待一下。
以太坊这轮行情一开始是要强于大饼的走势的，这一点从eth/btc的走势图可以看出来，如下图所示，这个指标起于0.056中枢点位，从7.15开启本轮反弹拉升行情，并于昨天最高点突破了0.07，今天4小时级别走势图中出现了冲高回落的断头铡刀看空形态，可见目前eth相较btc开启走弱。
图2：eth/btc-4h
通过上面的分析，可以考虑调仓换币，目前把手里的一部分eth换成btc显然是明智的，eth方面，同样以4小时级别走势图来看，从7.13触及底部1000点开启反弹以来，一周时间盘中突破1600点，最高价触及1631点，截至目前在1500点上方延续上涨势头，累计涨幅达50%+，可见市场赚钱效应明显增强。
图3：eth-4h
对于eth后市行情走势，我认为，当下1600点会有一定压力，若不能多头一鼓作气拿下这个位置，承压回落的概率会明显加大，合理调整至1300点即底部箱体上边沿的可能性是存在的，能在1300点这个止跌企稳会给投资者出现不错的第二次上车机会。 来源：金色财经 |
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