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[虚拟币交流]
挖矿报告：比特币减半后要涨到10万美元大型矿企才能避免亏损（转载）
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比特币下一次区块奖励减半已不足350天，减半效应什么时候会开始发挥影响力、历史
9 U6 \1 J+ I2 R( I' y真的能重演吗？一直是投资者关注的焦点。不过近日一份矿企研究报告引发了讨论。! M2 T1 G( `* J ?
并不看好Riot Platforms等上市矿企证券的前景
1 j8 q" H2 D5 G& k, M6 ] Y近日，一份发布在Seeking Alpha的报告原文指出，虽然比特币近期于$30,000区间持续盘整，但以Riot) X- |- f( Q e% w$ e
Platforms为首的上市矿业公司的股价却迎来了超50%的涨幅。6 z d% x4 N# t, K2 ^* ]
但与此同时，报告以Riot Platforms为例指出，虽然市场预测该公司挖矿算力将在2024年增加两倍，但研究员认9 g4 c! w: B; B2 G
为，矿工们也很可能因区块奖励减半而面临严重营运压力。(能获得的奖励从6.25变成3.125枚新BTC)
" s$ ^5 ?% {/ P# ~0 r3 Z就算像Riot这样的矿企可以依靠发行新股来维持营运，但这将稀释现存股票的价值，使股票的基本面收到损害，
. T7 I. M5 r/ i2 S因此，研究员并不看好这些矿企证券在比特币减半后的价格走势。* h' |0 n0 d W$ r) }2 b
矿企维持当前估值，比特币须涨至约10万美元9 f3 q1 \$ U& M g! ^2 q- |
据报告进一步说明，为了让矿企维持当前稍高的估值水平，分析师认为这在比特币区块奖励减半后可能需要待比
5 t# F) P* r3 z; @/ t) ]9 Q特币到达9.8万美元才能实现：除非比特币的表现远超我们的数据模型，否则我们认为比特币行业不可能毫发无 Y9 ]9 P/ E0 L
伤。即便Riot雄心勃勃地表明他们的算力将到达35EH/s，我们的模型也表明比特币的交易价格须高于98,000美元5 J6 g( x) E# l# I. w- S
才能表明Riot目前的估值在减半后是合理的。# c% U/ T( V# }5 @# ~0 {) @+ v
综上所述，报告还警告用户持有比特币矿企的股票风险极高，认为目前的基本面并无法匹配当前估值——而这还
% ^+ h- h. w# {6 m是没有考虑明年比特币区块奖励减半的情况下。8 b2 l7 K* v( j$ B
& p A5 \. Q' v2 v# g* q
- W2 ?# B6 l+ ?$ ^5 {8 Q |
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