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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘9 R2 J$ E5 Q9 C7 ^
     
' J  ?' q7 S- h" Y% N6 m3 B     初盘高水,豪门要防冷
* }! v' I+ L7 C$ m# t5 K       
, b1 x8 L7 b' ^* N0 [     + B& M  L1 `  }. O* ^
     09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:% @) f5 o3 Z" j4 n6 G  ?: u
     英超主队
( H. s4 |  c; B4 G     胜:11场 79%
4 i  x; [" c2 g! V, A8 @     平:2场 14%8 C3 G- c5 p" a5 Y: l/ `
     负:1场 7%
+ p: t. R3 [, [1 T8 C     
! T8 N; ^% I+ Y! l     通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。4 s6 U- q; ?  I$ B. l* L
     ! D4 q; s2 ?; Z( B: E4 k. o
     一、初盘阶段
0 e' e( X- x" ^* X     $ m" j8 K2 E- O8 y8 P
     具体到水位如下:
& t* _, y1 b$ }     初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜$ J3 U& ?: ^8 R/ \2 g& J
     初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
! U4 o, o4 G1 Z* P& B+ R3 {     初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
& T7 `: r1 M( a. ?( }+ e, S     
" S% E! G/ F4 D/ N: `+ A     分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
! V3 h9 R; |4 k. @2 G     # q! ~# V8 s; ?6 v8 g9 x+ T0 c
     维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
6 y# H$ ?# F" `# R4 s     热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
4 o# U& z; E2 c- S% a8 A: h     热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
4 W8 ?7 t! g& o6 S% U' Q' A5 Z     . o2 f) S% V  V: L% h- U
     初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
) s& [# g- A/ W6 D7 s     初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
9 K& Q& `* k9 e  S" s+ B     
% V3 I6 @6 [. K4 Z. Z4 q% }4 s     二、临场阶段
% k! _7 x( f6 F! Z     * x7 P' y) C4 ~/ C4 j! E; F! b: u
     具体到盘口如下:( \. @) k- w. i; b$ _" T
     临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜% k' K) P, o: b, N
     临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平( E8 o% e. i8 }1 a$ {
     分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:/ c- B( K' Y, F3 I
     
* ?: v# F0 E1 Z% ^     热刺VS伯恩利1 E# c. R/ t- `; m
     初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00, `5 M: n- G; l3 ?# @
     终盘:0.77球半1.09
2 t8 r- ~" I2 ~/ B8 ~# e3 R     
% o. H% h5 M% a9 R7 m! N9 I     临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
; h3 r) B! Y$ ^( ^* a% J     
' e- a2 N+ t3 |9 g: ]  ~9 n8 `3 P! I8 u     三、球队表现
. \& O; f$ V0 j( J0 Q; B7 a, w     $ u8 t, a8 h& w- o/ o
     在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。) l' A: N  e5 D
     
; l9 }( N( j  w" s     四、投注要点
) s& u4 S6 F4 k) S4 r3 ?     
, D) @- v0 r( `  a     要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
+ H4 w' V  Z5 [7 q* _4 n- A     要点2:初盘中水,重点防平" E( F% _5 h; T; b& v. Y) E. a
     要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
$ z: l4 I5 o( u4 c     要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
6 n4 t* q( R. j% u2 e7 x! N& k0 S     要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
2 C8 }! p+ P  X# R& Z( ]7 f. p4 T     要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
; R! I" z( E+ }5 F& Z. f     要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视  ^" L8 C: f/ h' a& a# V
     " I7 g# g8 M( r$ E2 N% l, b  Y1 }9 }
     对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
. P& Z7 F; b3 K0 j: F: S% g' _$ S3 e     对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方- V7 @0 n7 j1 W7 s7 G
     面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。& U7 r* G8 Q' N4 h
           
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


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