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[虚拟币交流]
美股上涨，长端利率上升打击BTC流动性资产，今年牛市难以实现（转）
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美股和比特币的逻辑不同:美股上涨主要是由Gamma对冲和CTA推动，不太受联储降息与否的影响。一旦不确定性被解决，美股往往会直线拉升。! M5 T+ @1 v8 |$ `2 [, M
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降息对比特币流动性资产受影响更大，但不仅限于此。降息影响的是短期利率，而长端利率对风险资产影响更大。例如，一次0.25个百分点的升息，! R& I4 }0 u# C$ e* e' D
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若10年期利率上升25个基点，其影响力远大于单次升息。七大公司股票不依靠流动性支撑，而是由引力支撑。例如，英伟达的PE长期保持稳定，主
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0 E- R. q1 |! F0 w/ D6 l- R要依靠每股收益（EPS）和AI业务的增长推动。
: ]- L3 ^. c+ N; d- m市场上承担风险的资产分为活期资产和长期风险资产。活期资金投向银行存款、短期债券等，长期资金投向比特币、股票、长期国债等。当10年期4 x* X1 {! {& }# a. a! Y- T6 B `
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国债收益率高于股票收益率时，投资者更倾向于购买国债而非股票。如果这种情况发生，表明市场处于晚期阶段，风险资产特别是比特币将受重创。. j+ O1 X0 i7 X8 V( ~9 |
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长端利率上升对所有风险资产都有较大影响，尤其是比特币等流动性风险资产。
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美国从去年开始大规模发债，但经济依然强劲，利率在5.25-5.5%。通常情况下，升息会导致经济衰退，但美国经济的增长本质已改变。经济增长依赖/ T3 z3 H x) H' [! R: K' @* o
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于私营部门和ZF债务的加权平均。* p* J3 i# p2 D% m8 R& c. n
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美国ZF通过持续发债来支撑经济，但这也导致市场供需矛盾加剧。2023年美国债券市场的DV01 约为7亿美元，今年预计将增加到10亿美元。财政部1 s! l8 |9 D- r" y5 W% c
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被迫发行长期债券，而市场上长期债券的买方主要是高盛那些对冲基金，这些基金通过短期低利率资金购买长期高利率债券来赚取利差。然而，当前长
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短期利率倒挂，缺乏买家，导致长期债券需求不足。预计10年期长端利率接近5%，这对比特币和黄金等无收益的流动性资产是巨大打击。比特币目前$ B& l" n) e9 u }/ P
* E& X8 V l5 w# n依靠套利维持，但在流动性减少的情况下，山寨币可能归零。总体来看，流动性资产难以进入牛市，只有当长端利率下降，市场才可能迎来转机，但今8 T: B' T( g0 ?+ X; S
, Z7 @) m: H: ]- B% k" @' k. E2 W年难以看到这种改变。
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