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[lastpost] => 2688465 非农暴雷 比特币俯冲六万 川普当不成总统 大波动要来了（转） 1730551274 mattf
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[虚拟币交流]
非农暴雷 比特币俯冲六万 川普当不成总统 大波动要来了（转）
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昨夜非农数据把市场惊呆了，统计出来的就业人数只有预期的十分之一左右。更为奇葩的是，从美股到BTC，风险资产这次没有遵循“就业崩=>经济衰退=>风险资产下跌”的路子，而是齐刷刷上涨。于是只好强行解释成“就业崩=>美联储必降息=>风险资产上涨”。
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可是在非农数据出来之前，市场已经定价了超过九成概率美联储11月降息25bp了。这么糟的数据出来，也不过就再加一成，变成必定降息而已。怎么就能把衰退的风险给抹杀了呢？拉出日内数据仔细看一下。原来是上演了一出先涨后跌的戏码。! v L' w6 V* E) u0 B
2 l. E3 C+ N w* ?这自然也联动了BTC走了个过山车，20:30从70k急拉到近71.5k，22:30突然跳水，一个猛子从71k上方高台，猛扎到69k的水下。$ T0 h6 i6 F& e1 |# f
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昨天晚上的那波上冲和回落，直接导致币安、OK、bybit三大衍生品交易所持仓纷纷直线下降；这说明多空双方的聪明资金在昨晚大幅离场，规避即将到来的大波动，所以接下来大家的单子也可以考虑减仓了。
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1 ?3 ^ O! y L7 v6 x4 b0 l& K: z这个周末可能跟往常不太一样，大选日在即，控盘越来越频繁，大家一定要注意波动。
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- j1 x. y7 I5 T5 m消息面上的恐慌已经引起了一些鲸鱼的大额抛售，建国越来越不稳了，目前看来，不论白宫宫主是谁，市场都大概率会闪崩。当然这些只是目前市场给我们反映出来的一些东西，结果如何，还是交给时间定夺，我们要做的就是把本金牢牢守住，抓到机会一击制胜。
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. ?6 A* |% Q/ W& \! I( h2 L3 I比特币技术面从日线级别看，上方的阻力非常强，连续的三根阴线短趋势已经形成了下降箱体，而这个69700这个位置目前还是箱体上沿，根据趋势接下来可能阴包阳的概率会很大。
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; ~8 ^3 o A. z所以这两天注意阴跌，但建议不要过分追箜，技术面在消息面面前就是小巫见大巫，一定要认清大趋势！2 A. a9 V9 _9 s# i5 z: L
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每一次下跌我都劝你们不要随意割肉。千万不要把操作做反了，大涨我们是慢慢卖出筹码，大跌我们是勇敢的买带血的筹码。为什么说牛市亏钱的人是最多的?
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就当下这个环境，大盘是在底部区域，但不一定是最低点。我们买不到最低点，买到了意义也并没有那么重要，你能吃到的部分才是你真实的，一大锅饭，一个人能吃完吗在底部也不意味着会马上反转，大多还是不能，你对你的标的有多少信心，是底部长期不涨你怎么办 ？看着别人的币都在飞，你会忍住诱惑吗？听到某个信息心中会涌动吗？。) s4 M" l' V7 |! d4 J! c6 T
8 ?5 v0 d- s7 @/ l; W做现货大周期，我的最佳战略就是持有主流币稳定型，比如回调主流真的没有回撤多少，再➕龙头标的，小仓位进一些潜力早期发展中标的，不做任何波段。( K. X+ V& Y+ V. c9 s& G& a
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