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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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$ ?5 z% K2 g P4 E2 `Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普2 y! I. c+ }% c! T$ r4 r2 o* {
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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# u w- I: U+ {9 Y9 ]( R% D1 g" SPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施3 D+ v! y' \% {& u) c5 w
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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8 S: I) G8 P, {+ ^/ W美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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4 e$ v8 z0 |7 Q4 s+ aBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”: z5 w) g/ M& Z0 M7 P
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率7 r5 m# z, y2 i) \5 C
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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* n: |9 D9 y3 ?; q( D6 l2 u8 C) O根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。; \" y6 ]5 P& {: x, |) d
: c! n! s) B" u, v1 a9 N据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。* `/ q! F$ l% m+ I0 N! W. I7 b
, h2 d4 Y! E- {今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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1 ] D7 }! c8 e- H; E: I追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于0 O- u0 \, H. k
3 D N1 {# g/ [. ?6 ~) p0 W上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。( H5 H2 M$ `) g5 {5 d }& \5 t, ^9 c7 q
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