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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的
9 l7 d/ n( F- e4 m9 ~" H- }比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
- W( |/ ?5 y, N/ ^9 B) F# S短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
4 p' m( B( T5 t) `4 z0 e, F8 ?' {' y& X7 Q3 d, i+ [: e
比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
- e+ P) o9 h& J# [& `: |实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
" m5 m( p6 U8 C
8 C/ G6 M# E. |$ z# L$ U# ]然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。
% f# [* a( h. X! Q% s
7 Y- ~! V( o2 [! y1 A- N2 v2 U) U* Q. kSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 . G" j( J( x9 _0 `# [/ i
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尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。1 P4 V% z- ^2 b0 l h
+ n5 b' O* f$ S4 H/ o) T这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
' A, Y' E! k* T+ y
& w4 y( d( a* U( U% J比特币价格结构和风险区域% e( H$ Z1 y8 `% v" P
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。5 p: z( N* ?7 {7 T$ V8 O
7 b5 Q' o4 D; X* |: G( X4 A# h' O
这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。0 g0 U" G- o. t4 _: s
- l) o6 _3 z: x: A+ s R- N
布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。3 D" s2 K8 _9 p2 ~7 |
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。
" a& s& A9 M0 y# D: T5 p7 B5 ]# T1 n
& Y3 f$ U8 ?* W( z这对比特币趋势意味着什么
! `- M( n& Q( }; R+ j+ {未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。- K* T* K2 @4 R8 z
0 c- r Z8 N3 D+ D/ [
如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。
0 W2 t, T) F9 F* e
% f% f2 [8 E& v+ b总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。( B0 @1 [: {7 Y/ {1 s1 O
& [% }1 G9 M1 u+ \8 H0 ]5 y
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