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[lastpost] => 2808304 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束（转） 1771763809 22301
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的
, V+ x p" O! m$ R比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要 Q' k! E/ E! N. R
短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
# f$ r3 w! p6 b# m8 ~# F9 P7 z! z7 X: i2 t
比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
2 v! ]* D5 F. k1 N# ^) c) g' G实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
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6 L7 d1 @% A, R$ Y7 K6 W然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。
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1 q4 F! ]: L8 A t# QSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 ) @' R. N+ `( W1 q4 d" _( _
7 e, j4 Q9 F/ Z2 U尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。
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8 }0 \" w3 B+ ~+ E: P这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
4 h& z: E7 I- A. c5 |5 \" F, h, W. e5 Y! L
比特币价格结构和风险区域
. V# z" F6 t C2 n) X发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。 t8 y( B W9 h6 ?3 N% w" C1 d5 U
4 Y4 p: D1 Z B" D$ W% A2 P
这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。 ~8 l# g4 O, G8 m; m: _ G* {
, k; N/ ?# H4 P% B" \布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。
; h+ z) L. p5 t& p4 c) E a! C; Z: M- r. b$ _) C* G
但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。
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% x' \1 ]7 u8 {+ _# B! C, Z5 O这对比特币趋势意味着什么
F& P7 X) c, c. b% k' i7 M7 b9 m未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。
( {. b6 u+ l5 \. y( R) D( L: O: D( J0 K4 |. {
如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。
# \; p8 n. a& i$ O C5 P; }2 {" F" T' I5 q
总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。# w5 B. e; y- a2 h
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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