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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。6 ^3 |" D- R; o3 m; \' V/ `5 I
d, T( ^6 q F! Z( _" L, y6 \ 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而1 Y* e6 g% i7 G- ?+ F D# @. |3 M
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“短期看空”比特币。
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3 c& j( Z/ I* R9 C! S: } “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已0 f9 {) |8 X0 Q
# m8 {$ d5 {% A$ S. @实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”" `3 `4 G( q3 u2 M
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。% c- c7 c% c; T/ h: `
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，
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( n5 F8 s3 N! F9 o: T' \而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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$ [2 y, s P- P3 D0 e: J! G+ d6 p BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的/ @1 T3 A+ \( y# }
2 q/ M# \! V0 H) W9 u+ C利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”/ |9 W. m5 v/ ~. @
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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