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[lastpost] => 2795576 比特币价格下跌,机构资金流动波动,表明市场情绪脆弱(转) 1767970275 jackcool1011
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BCA Research表示,投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑,而这可能对比特币构成利好。 E3 v5 M0 V' b5 w( O4 V
: [7 Y' v3 }% E {% q! {3 S/ Q 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出,目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产,并在股票投资中降低对美国3 B9 L a8 P2 x: ^7 V0 s
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市场的权重。原因在于,海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产,担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时,BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围,并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月,BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而% ^& @ Y8 J0 ~ I& a* j
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“短期看空”比特币。
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. V+ r! z6 O. \2 ]- J “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下,比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道,“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来,活跃交易的比特币在整体已/ u7 W# i! K) x
( v* O! m# Q0 ~* H/ i2 ~9 q实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
3 a* M8 t, h3 R% {
+ Z c( m% _; v) y/ a2 W 报告还指出,比特币作为“数字黄金”,正越来越像实物黄金那样表现,在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。5 g. }2 Q% ~/ i9 i j5 J
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$ P2 d9 k+ ~- m; m1 \; U 根据Coin Metrics的数据,自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期,现货黄金上涨了8%,
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: |$ X; i7 Q- H2 ]" h& Y I- U而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。, x: ~, d+ k" B: o# f5 A
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BCA在报告中进一步指出:“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺,但关税政策的模糊性,已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外,“激烈的
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' t4 _7 U1 f% ~" x利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”2 R) \" q* K, a4 e$ r
3 Z$ y- s) I3 h1 f, I* n: V “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛,但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号,才能恢复投资。”报告写道,“若无法及时提供清晰政策,7 E% g8 K$ u. s; J& K
5 V1 ^3 ~% f0 o' X7 [, a' O将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”, j4 A, E z* e& h
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