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[虚拟币交流] 比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。& y" C, ]: d* K4 B. h+ v5 v
尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。
% B& W1 Q. c  X, T% m- l! B过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。
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$ _' W& O- K; s* |8 M随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。
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从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮7 @. b. P! Y, y* O& C
回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔.+ W, e4 l3 i. S6 L" _4 i4 J4 G

% a' k3 n, s; k$ S% D& P7 O; P: a( P这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。7 l- S8 R0 f3 }2 {. q- T  h/ u

- x+ n' F* m0 y/ @然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。# a4 O( ^! B1 A0 i

( m& v! v: c0 {/ z2 w在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。
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2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。
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# w5 e8 }9 u' Q% D! i; Z这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。/ i$ d- P9 k( C* B. r/ A

0 {0 ~5 B4 y1 K" e6 z# y2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?
  F: @+ h+ q) e在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。7 ]3 u8 j: z5 R% ^( W- ]9 D

1 j" l, o, V' y" Q目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。- l% D2 }- B: S; Z9 ~

! W6 C4 I" l5 [! r$ Z+ D如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。$ X( D8 Q- E0 r/ m3 \2 V

5 R" S4 _5 p) S8 f6 c/ A/ U看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。
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从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。; Z7 I* @0 A1 D7 {. |# k
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除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。& i. R8 Q; g) ]- c% ^# ]
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随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。
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, @) P7 U" _+ i  b/ S; c3 w3 g因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
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在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。
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  S, o# S; _" z: z1 v2 Q然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。3 Y8 w* ~4 g% g3 N0 g

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现在比特币的期望是越来越高了,看不懂呀
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3#
这个倒也是相当的有希望的啦。
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4#
远远不够吧,百万的目标你不相信吗?
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不知道最后是不是会实现
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要是实现的话也是没问题的。
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这个前提也是要达到整体的。
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还是很有希望的啊,那是会有可能了
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9#
大家都是关注价格的问题的啊。
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