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[lastpost] => 2759487 美联储突然松口，美股黄金比特币集体狂飙！释放什么信号？ 1755976959 大吉大利
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。1 B! t; L4 `& F; O* [/ K
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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- w' u) Q. M% n" ~$ E( V& V. [宏观信号依然支持! f/ S+ F/ ~0 F+ ~5 c
美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。" @8 E) E# U {- `
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从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯./ S% d$ P9 Q( L+ x2 ?3 ~
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。5 H S( W( P: e1 i
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。$ a. H3 _7 R$ K1 L) ?$ l
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他补充道，7 t: h+ g+ i8 [3 K
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“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。” N; u% _2 j! L4 Z" M8 W6 C0 O
7 Z( C8 w: v- R# x2 V* j韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。- @' g( X/ C- F7 x
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他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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5 b- A$ d; c$ |" y* G亚洲比特币市场再度走强# n: c; P" p1 b* G
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.; D, J$ z$ e: r9 h x6 w% j
) X: t2 Q9 {4 z$ n; [1 Q; C3 o此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。6 g+ I* N6 {. x }2 `
0 E. _ ^$ L$ M3 C1 F; G相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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当前离线
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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