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[虚拟币交流]
XRP价格预测：ETF或将引爆类似比特币的60%涨幅-转
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XRP现报价 $2.81，日交易量高达 55.5亿美元。过去24小时内，XRP小幅回调 1.3%，当前市值约 1673.5亿美元，稳居加密市场第四大资产。 目前流通量约 596亿枚，总量上限为 1000亿枚。在市场情绪博弈下，XRP依旧是聚光灯下的热门币种，投资者普遍关注其下一轮大行情的潜在催化剂。 市场热议的一个可能性是 XRP挂钩ETF。随着 黑石（BlackRock）确认参与 Ripple 即将举办的 Swell 2025 峰会，这一猜想被进一步点燃。若该产品获批，或将引爆类似比特币的行情——机构资金入场曾直接推动 BTC 涨超 60%+。 ) i) y A# k" a* D, w
黑石 & Swell 2025 峰会Ripple 将于 2025年11月4–5日 在纽约举办 Swell 峰会，届时将邀请 黑石（BlackRock）数字资产总监 Maxwell Stein 以及其他重量级嘉宾。演讲嘉宾包括 纳斯达克总裁 Adena Friedman、Ripple 联合创始人 Chris Larsen、CEO Brad Garlinghouse 和 OKX CIO Jason Lau。 议程显示，Stein 将与 穆迪（Moody’s）的 Rory Callagy 探讨 资产代币化，但并未确认黑石是否会直接谈及 XRP ETF。 目前，这家资产管理巨头已推出与 比特币和以太坊挂钩的ETF，但对 XRP 始终保持观望，原因很可能是 Ripple 与 SEC 的长期法律战。该案件已于上月结束，或许为新的 机构级产品 扫清了障碍。 背景与看点： - 黑石已运营 比特币和以太坊ETF。
- Ripple 与 SEC 旷日持久的官司上月落幕，法律风险大幅缓解，市场因而对 ETF 预期升温。
- Swell 2025 议题涵盖 支付、稳定币、监管与采用，或释放更多行业信号。' B/ ?5 v+ d! g7 o0 v
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技术面展望：XRP承压
/ F, R/ b, J$ ?, x" A在 4小时K线图 上，XRP 走势偏空，目前运行在一个 下降通道 内，显示出下行压力。价格处于 50日EMA均线（$2.81）下方，而 200日EMA均线（$2.87） 成为强阻力位。过去多次冲击 $2.87 均告失败，短期仍受压制。 K线形态显示市场犹豫，当前以 十字星、纺锤线和小实体K线 为主，买卖方向不明。RSI 位于46，动能偏弱，未出现明显的 多头背离。若 XRP 跌破 $2.76，下方目标分别看向 $2.70 与 $2.62，对应通道下轨支撑。 若想让 多头重新掌控局面，XRP 必须有效突破 $2.87。一根 强势吞没K线 搭配放量，或能打开上涨空间，目标直指 $2.95 与 $3.04。若未能实现，则整体仍偏空，空头将持续寻找做空机会。
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& }7 z( B( j7 n: B+ lETF 预期与长期前景短线上，XRP 的关键在于能否守住 $2.70 支撑。若成功反弹，或将开启一波修复行情；若跌破，则可能迎来新一轮下探。 长期来看，焦点在于 采用里程碑，例如央行应用以及 ETF 的落地。若 ETF 打开机构资金入口，XRP 或将复制比特币的路径——机构大规模资金流入曾推动 BTC 出现过 大幅拉升。以当前价格计算，若走出一波 +60% 行情，XRP 将触及 $4.50，并有望在大盘配合下冲击更高目标。
8 ~# b5 q; Z( }+ r6 ~3 v8 V+ o对于投资者而言，耐心与风控 依旧是核心，但 ETF 叙事 仍是市场憧憬的最大希望，或将点燃下一轮 大牛周期。
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