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比特币可能飙升至 165,000 美元，因与黄金的比较引发人们的兴趣（转）
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关键亮点/ u! P+ ^ o Z% f' Z2 t
比特币ETF流入表明投资者信心增强
; |* ~1 w+ B" B黄金依然强劲，但可能会吸引投资者转向比特币
3 j6 l4 \8 k! a0 N; k根据趋势预测，比特币理论价值将达到 165000
5 {' w$ D# J; T- X+ C3 b9 S与黄金相比，比特币有望达到 165,000 美元
3 V2 x# z2 a7 H8 U# Z5 b根据摩根大通的一份报告，比特币相对于黄金而言被严重低估，这意味着到 2025 年底其潜在价值将增长至 165,000 美元。
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" d: ~0 N9 A' H$ b7 D7 d! KETF资本流入凸显投资者兴趣日益增长
8 U1 T8 f) O* L2 S& |" o3 X1 {摩根大通指出，近几个月流入黄金和比特币ETF的资金激增。市场数据也印证了这一趋势。( q' w* s$ N \( a' {
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1. 自2025年8月底以来，黄金ETF每周净流入量在18亿美元至42亿美元之间
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. p8 I1 q0 X3 k. n6 x# c黄金ETF净资本流入。数据来源：世界黄金协会4 G; E# m/ N/ r' n
2.2025年9月，黄金ETF流入资金约136亿美元。同期，现货比特币ETF净流入35.3亿美元。
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现货比特币ETF的净资本流入。来源：SoSoValue
+ c) M$ C; j% q) J; {这一活动表明，比特币相对于黄金的价值可能被低估。摩根大通报告称，比特币相对于黄金的波动率指数已跌破2，这意味着比特币吸引的风险资本可能几乎是黄金的两倍。% S0 n1 x' R% K* R/ i7 V2 x! ~
3 z: j/ T( q# Z. ]. Q理论估值与市场相关性
9 \# f8 V: G4 }考虑到这一点，比特币的市值需要增长42%才能与60亿美元的私人黄金投资相匹配，这意味着理论上的估值为16.5万美元。然而，报告指出，到2024年底，比特币的估值被高估了。
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0 Z$ \; z+ i/ h/ W4 Z2 K两种资产在短期（30天）和长期（365天）内保持相关性，而90天移动平均线仍显示负相关性。
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比特币与黄金的相关性。来源：Glassnode) _3 [1 w# D3 c. E) q5 Z5 M0 R( S: A$ a
图表显示，自2025年8月中旬以来，黄金的表现一直优于比特币。在市场波动之前，黄金创下了历史新高，而比特币则短暂下跌。摩根大通强调，随着比特币的复苏，黄金的投资吸引力下降，这增加了对全球首个加密货币的需求。) _ i; @; Q- D3 H3 U% k8 @1 ]+ P/ w
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