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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。! T% ~) q1 e X# i# \
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。; S( n x! }) m {3 _* a
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
" H% |6 {( X4 v, d/ kVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。/ k6 i+ V+ Y$ S# I P6 s
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。" j' Q/ z& g7 M! ~9 r# }9 C3 a
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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$ n( @$ I8 {1 V# H; @8 _5 b" z“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。/ a9 @- v. y6 g
& c+ o' o* R; Y即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。, u7 W& i8 z9 _5 x0 ]" x) G" X
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：2 P8 E C7 z7 o0 _2 {0 z
0 {6 s+ ?- |& M0 \“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”# x/ q+ Y6 [- z2 q6 a" q; ^# ^
( [" W2 W" J4 q4 E3 E& n0 N+ P' C底部预测不断出现
, \$ ?! u0 q" g与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。9 W* m/ o% ?* @- M* R: G, P0 m
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。 A3 i: u" v9 c5 S" X7 G3 i+ I
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6 J/ \) `+ B- ?3 wBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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/ t. o' f; { n. T+ ?7 w7 v上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。0 @/ p( E( X- G% j. N1 c/ c' L
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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& H6 f0 s! I% Z* K* {5 a. N交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。
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