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合并（The Merge）——这是以太坊有史以来最重要的升级。像这样的大事件往往只是短暂的“炒作“，有人说$ETH 也会如此，但我并不同意。这篇文章将阐释$ETH 在合并后为什么会改头换面的原因。
l0 @4 f# V9 e/ A这场合并是将以太坊中的工作量证明（PoW）共识机制移除，以权益证明（PoS）共识机制取代。但本文我们忽略技术细节，只关注$ETH 的价格。每种资产的价格都是由供需力量决定的。合并后哪些因素会改变$ETH 的供需动态？ : r; [' G7 ~4 S
三倍减半量； ETH 质押年化收益率（APR） ； ETH (解锁)锁仓 ； 机构需求；
1 S% ~/ P& g+ ~# e9 l5 V$ z一、三倍减半量6 _! \3 G1 J R' Z+ G. x- n
通过 PoS，$ETH 发行量减少 90%：这是需要 BTC 减半三次才能产生同规格的供应减少量。比特币 12 年才能做到的事情，以太坊今年一口气做到了。但这不仅仅是降低了 90% 的抛压那么简单，它意味着更多。 7 @5 t7 Y: l) `. X" h$ j/ k/ f
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此外，比特币矿工可以不必是 BTC 多头，他们投资硬件和电力来挖矿，而不是比特币。相反，以太坊验证者必须质押$ETH，因此他们通常是长期持有者。如果他们看到 ETH 价格上涨，他们为什么要出售他们的质押奖励？
+ C2 u$ v" Z0 N% k/ R; K二、ETH 质押年化收益率（APR）
$ v, T: j' |/ c! \目前已经有 1140 万美元的 ETH 质押，年化收益率为 4.6%。这种以 ETH 计价的收益仅来自质押奖励。在 PoS 中，质押者还将获得现属于矿工的 Gas 费，这将使 APR 增加 2 倍甚至更多。 & C' [$ ^ ^2 x7 V
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质押年化收益率 APR 可以被认为是$ETH 上近乎无风险的收益。当它上涨时，将吸引更多的 ETH 被质押，因为它成为了一个很有吸引力的替代品，相较于 DeFi 中其他赚钱机会。更多的 ETH 质押意味着市场上的供应减少，甚至会引发抢购。
; C+ Y( G( |+ v" }* ^三、ETH （解除）锁定$ L6 ?; L- c0 E: V( i% L
目前质押$ETH 是单向操作，因为质押者不能提取他们的 ETH 和奖励。许多人似乎相信以太坊的合并会让提现成为可能，并且”当 1200 万个质押的 ETH 被解锁时，ETH 将大量抛售“。我注意到有些人认为合并是一个负面的价格催化剂，ETH 被解锁，充斥市场，这种观点是完全错误的。 |
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