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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 - `+ T3 O. M1 O$ o. X. H! o3 r o" M
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. 1 |6 q" V2 D! S6 N1 B
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 % K5 ]) W3 T: n2 l1 u( R2 `1 @
以太坊基金集体亏损 # \& g( A$ h3 D2 j4 l i- Q
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
* o- A; Z Q" O/ I6 P! \与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
5 c; N) E3 w9 g与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
. y: @- A' S" e* @6 l6 Y/ s: u
0 m, F3 M" }5 w& k) g
编辑切换为居中 & a p/ d) |3 h+ a( c7 y8 k
流入/流出加密资金(按资产) - \6 R/ I3 T2 Y2 h) a
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
; O& Z- \ i/ T以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
# y% X! s, v' }
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编辑切换为居中
7 Q3 o: Y/ H. t- ]$ ~! i" C5 w l5 ?6月5日的TVL以太坊 * L6 v! E+ D- P1 s9 P+ U
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 8 w+ g4 I# N, e, K) f; ]
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
* H4 k( c. ~* l# r8 K1 K5 O0 n男性讲述金融时报:
5 t1 A6 ]) F' Q$ q% \“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
( a2 @- s1 g# Z, T2 }+ N4 [# j呆滞的技术面
$ l" m* V9 m# K; A7 B自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 + l1 \/ L. S, i: S) W* G8 X
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 / A) V! `- B7 m
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
3 o7 f6 Y4 w2 c3 z9 H+ _$ E! e
! Q J0 l& S& w6 b- x: j编辑切换为居中 : H+ w2 Z8 |" }/ q! K) d
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 9 e- J* N- Q9 i* y% n7 T
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
& ]* J; b B3 z4 f' \交易所的ETH储备正在增加 ; q3 b# ?$ | X1 R# ~8 Q5 w1 D1 T, u
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
8 i: J% a' e; f, @+ a1 \- S2 j& k自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 , L# y1 b" n- f% {
. g. R8 Z2 R: N7 D编辑切换为居中 8 }3 K8 M! ^2 @ i/ t4 w1 a/ k3 z
以太坊外汇储备 , m) x1 P/ v) v) C
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
; j" b1 w+ s! ^! J( i" N来源：金色财经 |
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