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从手续费收入角度 看BTC和ETH的估值
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《从手续费收入角度，看BTC和ETH的估值》
 1、BTC挖矿能跑赢法币本位，大概率也能跑赢BTC本位（但全球缺矿场），但BTC挖矿跑不赢屯ETH。2、BTC已经快撞上我2017年（币价2500美元）时预测的天花板：BTC总市值达到黄金总市值（折合一币30万美元），而在乱纪元下，BTC不可能超过黄金。BTC这一轮4年才涨3.5倍，增长神话不再。下一轮追求高成长的，会去买没有玻璃天花板的ETH，追求稳定的会直接去买黄金，BTC地位尴尬。3、ETH靠着 货币自由+合同自由，是区块链唯一一个已经落地，有大量用户&应用（尤其是圈外应用）、大量手续费收入的币。哪怕你就把ETH当做一个赌场，根据赌场的用户数、手续费收入和PE倍数，也有实实在在的赌场估值打底。不像BTC，完全是市梦率。4、最近一个月ETH烧币11.8万ETH，加上矿工手续费4930 ETH 和小费16240 ETH，手续费共13.9万ETH，按1200刀币价折合1.67亿美元，而同期BTC一个月手续费收入只有475 BTC，按2.1万刀币价，仅折合998万美元。ETH靠着货币自由+合同自由，手续费收入是BTC的17倍，隐含ETH估值应该是BTC的17倍，BTC现在总市值高于ETH，只是之前品牌惯性和宗教信仰，这种仅仅是信心支持，没有真金白银的支持，在ETH总市值超过BTC后，将像 诺基亚 对 苹果 一样，像功能机对智能机一样，在代际碾压下瞬间崩塌。5、ETH的烧币，叠加高度锁币（POS+Defi），使得同样的净利润（手续费收入），能吹起的虚市值，远大于股市的PE倍数。1亿美元利润高成长股，股市按20-50倍PE估值，是20~50亿美元市值，但烧币+高度锁币时，1亿美元手续费的买入烧币，能吹起100~300倍，也就是100~300亿美元的总市值。6、ETH 2.0的减产幅度是90%，这个供需平衡改变实在太大了，相当于3次BTC减半，ETH鬼知道会提早多久涨起来。就像这轮BTC减半前，也是抢跑了一波（2019年4月小牛市，3000刀涨到1.4万刀）。7、美联储加息缩表，但币圈稳定币根本没少，来币圈的小资金目标是100倍，大资金目标也是几倍，加息缩表前币圈内USD资金借贷，一般都是6-12%的利息，利息0%变3%是毛毛雨，基本不影响。最后，重要的事情说三遍：币价短期问上帝，长期问用户数
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