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2022年中盘点：6月巨阴收官 下半年加密市场会怎么走？
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昨天是2022年上半年的最后一个交易日，全球市场都出现了不同程度的下跌。美股三大股指受加息、地缘政治等因素影响持续承压，今年上半年，纳斯达克综合指数累跌约30%、道琼斯指数跌约15%（如下图所示）、标普500指数跌约20%，其中纳指连续录得三个月下跌。
图1：美股道琼斯指数日K线
加密市场方面，btc上半年大跌60%，币价从46000点上方跌至目前失守20000点，基本都是在今年第二季度下跌的，单季度下跌56%，去年第二季度同样也大跌了40%。回顾上半年行情，期间仅2月和3月分别出现了12%和5%的反弹上涨行情，其余4个月都呈现出不同程度的下跌，且第二季度4/5/6月的量能逐月放大，可见短期内出现止跌转势的概率比较小。
图2：btc/usdt 周k线
周年级别上看，如上图所示，btc失守30000点就是个牛熊分水岭，5.9当周更是失守该级别的ma120的关键支撑位，随后便开启了新一轮的漫漫长熊行情，目前仍没有明显的止跌反弹迹象，从这个级别走势看是不适合在这个位置和时机进行抢筹码抄底的，可以耐心等待周线级别走势企稳后进行右侧交易会更安全。
作为加密市场市值第二的ETH，2022年上半年同样大跌70%，跌幅要大于BTC，币价从年初的3600点上方的位置一路下跌至现价的1000点附近，最低点探到了881。尽管去年曾大涨了400%+，今年上半年已经回吐了几乎去年大部分的涨幅。
回顾上半年行情，单季度来看，上半年两个季度ETH都出现了不同程度的下跌，一季度下跌了10%，而二季度则大幅下跌了67%。期间同样仅2月和3月分别出现了8.7%和12%的反弹上涨行情，其余4个月都呈现出不同程度的下跌，且第二季度4/5/6月的量能同样逐月放大，短期内出现止跌转势的概率也比较小。
图3：eth/usdt 周k线
周线级别来看，如上图所示，从4月初以来，ETH连续11周下跌，仅上周小幅收阳，不过截止本周仍未出现明显的止跌信号，该级别均线呈现明显的空头排列，行情依然看空，这个位置是不适合抄底建仓的。
图4：btc/usdt 1d
最后回到大饼日线级别来看整个加密市场，不用纠结价位是否跌破20000点，具体点位意义不大，对于交易来讲，重点是看行情趋势，如上图所示，从今年年初至今有半年了，币价始终未能突破年线压力位，最后一次于4月初触及年线后承压回落，此后开启了本轮下跌行情，期间出现了40000/30000/20000三个整数关口形成的平台位，所谓盘久必跌，从最近几个交易日持续放量下跌的走势行情来分析，失守20000点继续下跌延续熊市的概率是比较大的。 来源：金色财经 |
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