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2022年是加密最大熊市 比特币、以太坊皆重挫
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整体加密货币市场在美国联准会(Fed)紧缩货币政策、历史性高通膨等不利的宏观背景下，承受巨大压力，再加上近期三箭资本(3AC)等大型机构因过度杠杆、风险控管不佳导致的连锁反应，数据分析平台Glassnode在月初刚出炉的分析报告中，就将2022年认定为数字资产历史上破坏性最大的熊市。
比特币各项数据指标：回撤比例、持续时间、资金分析…
文章首先指出：从历史数据来看，市场的低点通常位在比特币从历史高位下挫75～84%，目前BTC的价格已经至历史高点下跌约73.3%；此外报告还整理了历年熊市的持续时间，表示当前熊市还处于历史的规模之内：
2015年至底部持续了410天
2018年至底部持续了362天
2019-20年底部持续了260天
从2021历史高点至今持续了227~435天
如果从已实现价格(Realized Price)来看，BTC现货价格目前约低于实现价格(22,650美元)10%，这意味着一般的市场参与者头寸已经处于浮亏状态。但这在历史纪录中并不常见，过去六年来只出现过三次，分别是2020年3月新冠爆发时，以及2018年11月，两次事件都为当时熊市周期奠基了底部。
已实现价格是指将所有比特币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总出的变现市值，除以流通供应量，可以用来评估市场参与者的实际成本。
同时报告还提到，比特币目前正在经历史上最大的资金外流，平均值达到了-2.73个标准差(SD)，这比之前历史上最大的两次熊市还要大了一个标准差(2018年熊市结束、以及2020年3月的抛售)；投资者的单日净实现损失在6月下旬创下历史新高达42.34亿美元。
总结来说，2021-22年的比特币熊市，Glassnode得出了以下的统计和观察：
价格已从历史高点下跌73.3%，与以往熊市低点的上限相吻合。
从顶部到底部的持续时间在227～435天之间，取决于熊市开始的位置。
低于200日均线的偏差非常大，只有2%的历史交易日表现得比当前更糟糕。
在统计的基础上，市场已经实现了历史上最大的月度跌幅。
历史交易中只有3.5%的时间出现过更大的资本外流。
“我们现在可以断言，2021-22年的比特币熊市是历史上破坏力最大的熊市之一，无论是从严重程度、深度、资本外流和投资者损失的规模来看，都是如此。”
以太坊同样遭遇重挫
另外，市值排名第二大的以太坊(ETH)也同样遭遇重击，报告总结出ETH在市场低迷期间的一些统计数据：
以太坊从历史峰值回撤的幅度为-79.5%，尚处于之前熊市底部的上限内。
比特币的主导地位控制着资本流动的方向，从历史上看，这预示着以太坊在接下来的几个月中会继续表现不佳。
在过去的6个月里，发生了以太坊历史上最大的两次资本重挫，合计276亿美元的市值净流出。
ETH和ETH2.0的MVRV(流通市值/已实现市值)都出现大幅缩水，表明ETH的持有者正持有大量未实现的损失。
以太坊交易盈利能力继续徘徊在2019年1月来的最低水平，投资者在每笔交易中实现的平均损失约为-16%。
来源：金色财经 |
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