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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
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当前总结：昨天非农的数据在风险市场掀起了一波小的浪潮，但是随着币价的逐渐回稳，可能更多的人并不会再去考虑它会继续在市场上带来影响。但实际上这个影响还是继续存在，而且目前因为非农的强劲甚至有了新的预测。大家都知道八月是真空期，没有美联储的FOMC会议，也就是不存在加息
而从下周三公布七月的CPI数据到九月二十一日执行九月的加息计划中间有超过六周的时间，而如果七月的CPI数据并没有明显的下降（或上升）或者是美联储认为通胀依然在较高的位置，那么高涨的非农数据未必不会给美联储召开临时会议予以加息的可能。当然目前仅仅是假设，但市场中已经开始出现预测的流言
从当前的官方预测数据来看，和之前第三方发布的数据一致性还是挺高的，预测中七月份的CPI年率是8.9%，如果真的是这个数据的话，虽然确实可以说是通胀见顶了，如果没有非农数据分析员最多的就是互项多一波猜测，毕竟还有八月的的CPI缓存时间，但目前非农的强势，8.9%的数据未必不会让美联储召开临时会议
从BTC和ETH转入交易所的抛压数据来看，截止到今天早晨八点的抛压情况因为昨天非农的数据引发了对于美联储强势加息的恐慌，所以更多的筹码转移到了交易所中，希望在价格出现变化的初期就可以离场，但实际上这次非农的影响就像昨天分析的一样，不会对近期的价格造成太大的波动
毕竟美联储加息重点还是要看CPI的数据，所以在8月10日之前，宏观的情况不会发生本质的变化，如果这个方面还不能看得透彻，那么获利离场未必不是一件坏事。从细节数据来看，昨天晚上公布CPI前后是BTC和ETH抛压较重的时期，这都是正常的。稍微不同的是BTC的更大抛压在美股结束时，而ETH继续则在今早
另外需要注意的就是美债，虽然今天凌晨四点以后美债也进入了休息时间，但在闭盘前依然保持着殖利率大幅上升的情况，短期美债的收益已经普遍的超过了3.1%，而中期美债也在2.9%附近，殖利率的大幅提升说明了大量的资金从美债市场流出，但即便是如此高的收益率，尤其是一年期的收益几乎达到了近期的高点
但仍然没有出现大量购买的趋势，可以说释放资金的缺口并没有得到补足，这种情况要么就是大量的资金觉得相比美债，其它的市场更加值得投资，但是从黄金的市场来看，并不像有大量资金购买的迹象，那么资金进入风险市场的可能性就会存在。当然另一种可能就是抽取的资金量过大，导致进入的资金无法体现 来源：金色财经 |
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