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[lastpost] => 2690745 特朗普获胜后，比特币企业在美国感到安全（转） 1731414872 我的花园
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下一轮牛市会是一场冷牛市吗？* i% }2 H2 k6 z" I2 [1 Y
借用ZZ语汇中“冷战”、“冷和平”描述一下加密市场，我们正在经历一波冷反弹，我们未来可能会在经历一场冷牛市% F7 B9 }7 U3 S$ {% h1 J
1我们正在经历一波没有赚钱效应的冷反弹Old Money Love Old Coins（老钱爱老币）9 s) G; E: @7 R8 s
美国华尔街老钱们新开辟的自留地EDX交易所 ，上线且只上线了四个老币：BTC/ETH/BCH/LTC
$ B- [) s2 H, B7 B" b) \& f但它们气势如虹的反弹属于老钱，大多数新韭菜只有看热闹、喊加油的份儿- v4 t' _5 U: d1 @7 l, a7 `
而我们拥有且珍爱的L2治理币、DeFi治理币、Web3游戏治理币、CEX治理币，在被SEC重拳出击之后刚刚腰斩，到今天大多数还在底部震荡+ R# R9 p% i0 |* H* p( x9 x6 E
在流动性没有实质改善的情况下，每次反弹都是以BTC为首的加密核心资产对加密风险资产的一次吸血" h3 z! Y8 E: u* i
预计这次反弹也不例外
6 O0 t g9 [1 g4 R( }2 f ?2我们可能会经历一场没有大的财富效应的冷牛市上一轮牛市，是美联储货币政策周期（降息至0+QE放水）+美国经济周期（衰退==>复苏==>过热）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（DeFi、NFT进入大规模采用期）+BTC减半周期等等诸周期正向共振的结果
8 n4 f, h3 `. M" ] r u而站在我们当下，美联储货币政策周期（还要加息2次+QT回收流动性）+美国经济周期（过热==>温和衰退）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（新叙事与新叙事之间青黄不接）+BTC减半周期（减半效应边际递减），
K0 U2 k% j; _( a4 Q在这样的诸周期共振下，预计下一轮牛市可能没有上一轮牛市那么烈火烹油、鲜花着锦般的绚烂热闹，很可能不会出现类似上一轮牛市DeFi和NFT项目们批量制造百万富翁的财富效应9 T! K8 ]5 D: M7 `5 A2 `
当然，如果在23年下半年或者24年上半年发生黑天鹅，美联储再次急速降息至0+量化宽松+财政大撒币来放水，那就又是另一番景象了
0 V: U- m( `1 c# T; {6 ~7 T7 {3冷反弹与冷牛市中的个人交易策略冷牛市，并不意味着加密世界西部冒险时代的结束，更不等于说散户再也没有财富机会
- N) N6 U( a! u0 c/ L1 o. T只是我们需要稍微调整一下交易思路，从热衷发掘百倍币、万倍币等Alpha收益机会，调整为努力保持住Beta收益+复利思维& [* m( M8 ? g8 K8 ^2 |
冷反弹与冷牛市意味着波动率的衰减，也意味着中性策略春天的到来1 w2 r. D \& c2 |
既不做多，也不做空，也不波段。而是，坚持以币本位为原则，努力囤积更多的币圈核心资产：BTC、ETH、Uniswap V3 WBTC-WETH LP、GLP等等) S0 R/ M; n7 H( ]
不过如果你觉得中性策略枯燥且无聊的话，可以试试数学期望为正的投资方向，比如撸毛、Web3游戏打金、MEV机器人套利、百U冲MeMe币或土狗等等0 Q1 [2 ?( [1 B- ~* M) h
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