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[虚拟币交流]
挖矿报告：比特币减半后要涨到10万美元大型矿企才能避免亏损（转载）
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比特币下一次区块奖励减半已不足350天，减半效应什么时候会开始发挥影响力、历史
6 ]1 u- v9 u3 {. m9 ], r真的能重演吗？一直是投资者关注的焦点。不过近日一份矿企研究报告引发了讨论。
' t" ~/ K2 Z: W并不看好Riot Platforms等上市矿企证券的前景( J' o0 |7 `2 Y1 \% m5 E
近日，一份发布在Seeking Alpha的报告原文指出，虽然比特币近期于$30,000区间持续盘整，但以Riot" b: u( E# T! L3 m( `
Platforms为首的上市矿业公司的股价却迎来了超50%的涨幅。
% D" x+ F5 U7 h但与此同时，报告以Riot Platforms为例指出，虽然市场预测该公司挖矿算力将在2024年增加两倍，但研究员认
* y1 A ]7 V* s' Q为，矿工们也很可能因区块奖励减半而面临严重营运压力。(能获得的奖励从6.25变成3.125枚新BTC)4 M, s7 G7 ]! d/ c
就算像Riot这样的矿企可以依靠发行新股来维持营运，但这将稀释现存股票的价值，使股票的基本面收到损害，$ @4 r! y# y4 A
因此，研究员并不看好这些矿企证券在比特币减半后的价格走势。
; q+ ?4 l8 f( I8 \矿企维持当前估值，比特币须涨至约10万美元0 h4 S9 m1 V( X- N5 Z" \
据报告进一步说明，为了让矿企维持当前稍高的估值水平，分析师认为这在比特币区块奖励减半后可能需要待比
6 A z* c) ~- P, h d* d特币到达9.8万美元才能实现：除非比特币的表现远超我们的数据模型，否则我们认为比特币行业不可能毫发无$ Y0 s' Z0 L! p$ H' C
伤。即便Riot雄心勃勃地表明他们的算力将到达35EH/s，我们的模型也表明比特币的交易价格须高于98,000美元
0 b R6 g" o, j3 L3 a才能表明Riot目前的估值在减半后是合理的。$ Q. D8 j# [7 s
综上所述，报告还警告用户持有比特币矿企的股票风险极高，认为目前的基本面并无法匹配当前估值——而这还
+ e. A8 N/ s; a2 A2 N2 d是没有考虑明年比特币区块奖励减半的情况下。& V! X7 Y! D/ } [% j t: t( B
! S# x. N* c% N) R9 B5 P5 f' C9 J
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