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[lastpost] => 2690533 FTX 起诉币安与赵长鹏CZ，索回「18亿美元」股票回购款，到底发生了什么？ 1731545020 天策-菱玖
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
& L9 H% g$ L5 C! y& z断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。+ L V& e6 Q" h9 d" W
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
$ H) B$ e, [1 _% D9 W" N1 z30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。1 Y/ r; n4 L! c" v& a9 m: W9 X
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
% E3 O2 T. U1 s8 T1 Y* {+ e近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄+ ~, v+ |* I0 T* f, b( i0 `1 e4 O
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
% [/ K( G4 `% F5 }7 ]# V. F' R从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的 B: |3 e6 h4 X$ I
低点。
) [2 i: J$ I8 b1 I/ x全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声* h. i8 o/ P9 [$ v! L3 [
另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突# ^, L; {2 x2 H5 O' q [
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
" I d) S7 t3 _2 @, c目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
" V% C& P7 k/ F; W! k. e率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
6 ]/ ]$ y5 Z' g美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael# r/ k' C$ x4 G- Y4 X
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
& Y5 l" W. S7 b$ x; P1 ]“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种" t# P, C9 P9 Y+ {9 K
情况不会在短时间内结束。”
F' H" x7 z: F6 m- J纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下9 ?8 b4 X9 f; S! l9 _
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。/ L0 \5 X u j( @( q! s& o4 l$ a
比特币ETF即将通过？
3 y( I1 v! t& s; M E3 }/ v3 K另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg( z- f! p/ y- `& P- m8 u
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上4 r( k+ T+ d1 h1 j' n& P/ ?
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
2 b8 y9 o+ C( ~6 z2 Z问题。
$ q% Y0 O1 y2 s! q V似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
1 J# E' g% }. T$ F
& t* @2 Q2 _5 Z- X |
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