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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易, v0 ?2 H6 a5 E9 N. D# S
委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自
0 |, B# z5 |+ YBlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。
( ?% M# \4 O* r' a通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
+ t* p5 M) U" u+ y# L3 l批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
+ B+ r2 D# w) M; C& ^, ^后240天做出裁决。
/ J$ Z( y& H: Q4 M5 h, i分析师：预料之内会被推迟" }3 }- e! Y: O/ H0 [' p' @
彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也
: q3 C% b; y0 g9 K2 G变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方# D2 z* p4 P: x, @$ G L
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行
& A, `2 i7 ^. s: Y长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
4 C- D2 @. P2 f6 @2 b8 ~来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
' k" ]2 @; r6 L7 O. U. V2 D9 x讶。
, P; {& G( t) [' d1 W6 E事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
; \! t, ?; T S& v! S环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成1 ]. m: d" U, l6 v q2 V# w- f
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
1 H' d$ t9 f% P1 f' D三大利好消息酝酿
/ O9 [3 X+ t. R5 F3 N市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
. w& O! }# Z3 a8 K7 }9 @) MGBTC负溢价率缩窄 S2 T+ H) C& m% k/ ~
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持2 D6 k8 z. m! Y& Q3 D# Q
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可: l9 \% P F! ` v& Q
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。! j$ e% ~* E' O2 \& m8 |8 n' A) h. ?6 E
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线. ?, j8 h- m) o# l2 Z: g
值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只" R7 o2 j( z: f+ z7 f
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。
' D- {, {% D; L多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
2 ^ o( } d$ P9 G不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
4 F) i* B w+ F V; w多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然 X8 Z E6 o) z5 X+ a) L
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
% M* `; Y; p7 F: B' H
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