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[lastpost] => 2646864 拜登vs比特币:2024年美国大选临近,一切都岌岌可危(转) 1714666927 gkfbuw
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每经AI快讯,4月8日,比特币重回72000美元上方,加密货币概念股普涨,MicroStrategy涨超11%,Coinbase涨近6%,Marathon Digital涨近4%。黄金突破2300美元关口,创历史新高,进入3月份黄金更是气势如虹。
; T+ i& |( y% }% |; p" V美联储加息、缩表两年时间,目前依然维持高利率环境,在此背景下很早之前市场就担心经济会出现衰退,但2023年开始,本来高利率利空压制的美股、黄金、比特币纷纷上涨,甚至创出历史新高。美国经济非但没有衰退,反倒是数据越发亮眼,以至于通胀极其顽固。# P( ?9 L# ?+ {
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本来市场预期的降息从3月份推迟到5月,现在5月份也几乎可以肯定不会降息了,甚至6月降息的概率也大幅下降。; D* g, ]' p9 l$ m6 g
1 O; P( j% ]- H1 b3 u美联储主席鲍威尔最近又发表鹰派言论:4月4日美联储主席鲍威尔表示,最近的数据没有实质性改变整体情况;在对降通胀信心增强之前不打算降息;美联储有时间让将发布的经济数据来指导决策;美联储正逐次会议地决定FOMC的货币政策;风险仍然朝着更加平衡的状态靠拢;美联储尚未完成“持续地重塑2%通胀”这一目标。
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按照一般的理论,降息预期减弱,美股、黄金应该承压,但美股依然坚挺、黄金也极速上涨突破历史新高。; o" W5 |: }9 H! Z9 Y1 o8 T j
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市场一定是不会错的,自古“盛世古董、乱世黄金”,黄金是发达市场的“衰退对冲工具”,持续大涨说明资本认为市场处于“混乱”中,风险在加大,衰退几率也在加大。
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% {2 v+ {2 l! y: S9 A以往美联储加息后,刚开始总是“嘴硬”,直到经济衰退、市场大跌才“被迫”降息甚至开启印钞机救市。, M5 z: G* j+ N0 ?; r) o
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现在联储主席鲍威尔认为美国的经济数据依然强劲,通胀压力还在,经济不大可能会衰退,但市场资金却纷纷涌入黄金避险。
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( J7 Y u+ D3 E, _2 V- | v现在即使是美国,金融体系的债务也已经达到天量级别,到处是窟窿,美联储通过各种手段不断的变相的放水掩盖,很多市场数据和指标已经失效了,这时候该相信谁呢?还是相信市场的选择。
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; ]& o/ o5 l2 D1 o: I$ p$ k, ?对黄金来说,如果出现突然的衰退,可以避险保值,如果后期继续大放水,黄金还能升值。比特币也是相似的逻辑,不过比特币的波动比黄金大,并且更复杂。ETF驱动比特币大涨一轮后,由于短期资金获利了结,长期筹码抛售暂时进入调整阶段。1 c$ R( d5 M3 f
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比特币在2020年3月随着全球资本市场在疫情影响下暴跌,它也出现暴跌。很多人认为它没有避险属性,实际上,并不准确,因为当时黄金也跌了。突发衰退带来的利空,往往第一轮下跌是流动性危机叠加杠杆崩溃带来的,对比特币这种波动大的资产来说,遇到这类危机波动大也正常,随后大放水它又开启大涨的牛市。# d; R: @' @* y! N" b* n
! o X! K: u. ]$ l' n7 O这也是比特币和黄金不同的地方。* }# f9 b0 v! T. s$ X1 V1 ]
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这是要买下地球的节奏,怪不得马斯克要去火星了。 |
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