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[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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9 S+ q) v; R+ Y" Y 初盘高水,豪门要防冷: Y( y9 e/ U r, \
. t1 [1 T; i9 ?2 I: h# h - _( n; v) u Y- _9 A- j( q
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
( |1 K1 v8 h2 J1 N9 k7 y 英超主队
% B$ ^5 J+ \0 M4 f7 j5 O5 n1 R7 J 胜:11场 79%
/ g- [' @. C* c, D5 @4 X3 a 平:2场 14%
" p+ ]: Z3 o9 P0 C 负:1场 7%
3 M9 W1 m: c5 i' G% ~8 c' s
. a% a" L3 g3 ~+ U4 }, k 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。- j: S& z, \+ f5 \. B* d2 G4 c8 ]
6 {- c2 c* n9 N; s 一、初盘阶段* S) a4 f: y7 e2 G
+ h9 f$ q3 G3 P$ d- `8 Q. M
具体到水位如下:
6 F2 k. T- e6 ^' ^$ k2 z 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
- i6 V$ t& O$ u 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平: n k% Y) d+ {( x! u
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
f( k$ I {9 S5 S% U. O, f# L3 V7 K u
* ^4 n! g2 S$ q3 E: P! ` 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
' v2 F+ s4 s9 d: l
$ n- l6 i& h3 A4 W7 M0 C 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
* F. ]2 d3 ^8 Y2 k: g4 i 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02+ {0 n1 |7 Y) W3 w) H; [. h2 ^0 I1 j
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
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! {1 s! [: M0 P6 x 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
! [8 w* H% t* R 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。/ k' G+ K' C2 d$ q/ L( b5 ~
" P5 X# [$ q6 }- e7 p 二、临场阶段9 |. }) `% R1 M7 k w2 {
! L: `+ c( a, A7 r$ T4 L 具体到盘口如下:+ L+ A) S+ w; f8 H' s
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
1 X1 @! A( R4 N. N 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
* ]; @5 }; [8 m/ V% T8 _0 G 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:" P2 e \, t5 E/ ]: U$ J
% y( X1 L+ i9 ^; Q. \
热刺VS伯恩利
7 @& d5 T7 u" W* H4 [! U8 Q 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
( }7 U4 q- ?( _' c- c 终盘:0.77球半1.09) ?& l3 e# S/ _6 l4 S
% d& S9 @. \! }, G9 l. k7 W. t 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。* {2 g1 [' R s4 g
, P( V- _/ H) A! l: j0 o4 W 三、球队表现2 h' j- _1 Y. W! _' {: E
2 @- V4 t( o1 n5 F# O
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
8 n" h' x3 l6 l
6 L" W- ~" P4 ]1 b 四、投注要点
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' A7 }5 {4 g4 J$ ?! K 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证5 I+ @; m2 ~3 y! r6 g
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平2 h" M+ B& l8 J* Y* [# r
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能) Q0 h. F) Z1 [0 _4 B6 Y6 l
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
, T9 E0 V) {2 e" g& C 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
: e2 @' X, w( N* ~! f% b3 E4 @ 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
9 k7 O2 {0 f0 b7 g6 a2 ^ 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
1 l( \: E3 p( U4 S$ i
5 n/ w! E- y. x; K3 a% x7 A- b 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法9 W0 e3 O/ y' I" e6 G( h/ o
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方6 ?4 S/ y6 ^. ^$ t* e4 c: e1 x
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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