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[lastpost] => 2680059 Cardano价格预测:ADA在Hoskinson会见阿根廷总统前上涨15%(转) 1727431626 赚钱小样
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。. P6 [' D4 u1 F/ ~/ m/ t4 Y/ b
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。/ q& r1 e; U" C3 q6 e
8 {* W9 T+ M) h$ ?2 v, k自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。- o# @/ `# X' k$ g# h S4 m
v4 J! {3 y( U- \阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
, U$ ?& e, K0 _5 a7 {9 G) W! K/ I) h7 `# t$ |8 {* v- {
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
" u2 F9 v( s: M& `* Y6 n. S+ h, ^; V1 S, j$ j+ b
那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?0 I% Z3 N. i/ k( _8 N9 o, ~# z3 B
! A' h, x7 |0 B) s/ w- r8 V观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
% S- D% N- N; M( [/ F分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。9 l+ V: ?" f$ }8 k% I8 U
1 ^- r$ l, C# P上周降至1300 BTC。3 w& b9 [* o1 c: G8 s( m9 {! Y' i
. M8 u" @" w1 o8 n- ~% d1 g从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
( F+ f, R# P: K3 }
" k: M7 D$ c$ b: F- V! }鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
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6 A M% o- K! Z! J1 G- d8 G; q3 e5 R鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。1 W9 _$ H+ a+ [. V) Y4 z
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
( T, u B* ^$ {: ?7 A& V9 X( a8 J; X5 K" u0 R& W/ `
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?
7 B! h2 `+ o$ y- W6 N( \- M随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。+ C& e& m6 e6 i) s5 ^% X p" T
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
9 W- a8 i. Z+ h% A! h: ~+ U+ v
$ A7 W# I* n8 z) Z6 x8 z# B8 g( B因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。$ l* ~8 s0 W) s- X
" ^) i# T A3 O技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。( X7 `4 |/ y: Q3 |; k- [2 e3 r& ]
: K. R% b1 S8 j- W+ ?( _位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
1 ^ W8 n! v: ~* C) `9 p' ?; H然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
: v. B% r7 y' ~9 j) Z* O$ n" z1 {: F
0 W9 \) `: m: Y/ c, U- p; K3 j根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。% W* ?8 r9 n4 v* Y
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