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[lastpost] => 2805541 比特币现金——分析为何跌破 500 美元可能对买家有利(转) 1770775412 22301
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BCA Research表示,投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑,而这可能对比特币构成利好。
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: H8 \4 h$ e" J; z( w& m 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出,目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产,并在股票投资中降低对美国. M3 e0 M w# D1 X: a4 r+ h* S
2 y" _) u, `) p/ C市场的权重。原因在于,海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产,担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。- ]3 L _8 {. O+ `1 K: D1 `
2 ^, i1 e* P+ W 与此同时,BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围,并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月,BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而; n4 o- \1 n* Y( X; q
* Z6 J5 k2 ]; R1 `+ a“短期看空”比特币。
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下,比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道,“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来,活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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0 [8 n L- x# j B0 {实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
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报告还指出,比特币作为“数字黄金”,正越来越像实物黄金那样表现,在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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根据Coin Metrics的数据,自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期,现货黄金上涨了8%,. [: W! l, f4 i) k. h% `( |; b
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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BCA在报告中进一步指出:“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺,但关税政策的模糊性,已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外,“激烈的
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. {5 L7 @; A3 w6 [; W$ _( G. P% i利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”$ ]$ m% {' {5 G. g4 a+ @
G% d! t; |4 u8 J “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛,但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号,才能恢复投资。”报告写道,“若无法及时提供清晰政策,
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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