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[lastpost] => 2782580 宏观驱动因素、市场情绪转变以及低于 7 万美元的战略入场点（转） 1763515183 jackcool1011
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, P9 g; U. ?0 x8 T3 v% x& ?1 S 7月1日晚，复旦大学经济学院举办“稳定币与国际金融大变局”线上研讨会。会上，复旦大学国际金融研究中心主任杨长江认为，) ?8 g! S+ I8 S& Z, b7 b- E
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q8 K4 E" l1 e; ]* M稳定币近年来迅速“出圈”，既受到美国总统特朗普的政策偏好等偶然因素影响，也体现了全球化与金融化在数字经济时代共振耦合的
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$ U. r; y5 t5 m' k3 K必然趋势。杨长江指出，美国高度重视稳定币，其背后是出于维持美元霸权的考量。& q7 t, c6 k) }! ], _, Q: O$ b
3 A* u6 a$ j- u$ ]" _5 x 他认为，稳定币是代币化时代货币形态演进的阶段性成果，虽存在诸多问题，但其货币属性已初具雏形。它实现了三大平衡：一
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, ?/ B/ e( G$ S! A是公权与私权的结合，以法定货币为锚、由市场机构发行；二是中心化与去中心化的融合，在链上形成去中心化交易基础的同时保留' V; v% M2 e4 u# c2 W# M3 _
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发行方控制力；三是链上与链下的协同，既服务于数字世界，也在现实世界的跨境支付、金融包容等方面展现出广泛应用。
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; \6 r/ K2 e5 E R p+ g8 F 杨长江表示，尽管国际清算银行在其最新报告中对稳定币提出严厉批评，认为其在货币基本功能方面不合格，但我们应以更开放、
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包容的态度看待这一新兴事物。他强调，随着商业银行逐步参与稳定币发行，未来将出现科技公司与金融机构之间的竞争与合作格局，5 [: f I- `( j# l1 d& S G: I% }$ [
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也将进一步推动数字金融生态的发展。
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关于稳定币背后的全球化演进问题，杨长江说道，“美国这么热心做这件事情，有它的考虑。过去美元以黄金、石油为支撑，未来则
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' Z5 U3 `5 q5 P. c; }可能是数字资产。如果美国控制住了数字世界，那么美元霸权未来就更有希望延续。”5 X9 K% g% m6 o5 ^5 d2 v8 \
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他还提出，美国推行稳定币的背后不仅是为美国国债创造了操作性需求，更是一个战略性想法——企图构建链上以美元为基准的下5 X( P) B. c+ k" |' ~
+ e$ e! \. L2 g一个代币化的全球金融体系。
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在谈及人民币国际化时，杨长江建议天朝采取“双轨并行”战略：一方面加快央行数字货币建设，另一方面积极探索人民币锚定型稳定% ?4 @% @( C' T; f. S% {
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币的发展路径，尤其应在香港、上海等地创造应用场景，主动适应数字金融趋势。他表示，天朝应把握数字金融发展机遇，在监管与创新
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之间找到平衡点，为人民币国际化开辟新空间。: u. E# E" p; f0 F* \ l+ k! u$ U4 L
& I5 o. \2 ]" m! P$ s 人民币国际化，应该是两条腿走路。传统的贸易、投资项下推广人民币使用，以及试点央行数字人民币等，这是一条腿。另外一条腿就
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( D0 R3 P6 _9 q7 a$ R是推行人民币稳定币，规范和推广实际上已经存在的人民币稳定币贸易结算。我们需要双管齐下，来找到最合适的途径。" [* q) l8 ^# c. W% l* ]: L
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