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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。, |9 b/ e; W% H- `+ V- ]
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。8 @/ U6 w! L" _1 u) a
9 r, x& N; v$ PUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
1 c/ t* @4 t: r( F7 ^ H% f4 f2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。2 \& c$ {4 Q9 r2 i
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。+ o2 F" G+ X( W$ }( _
" J8 x: Q, B& D0 Y尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。2 b) L- C5 [) v. l4 s* Q! B# P6 q! h+ n6 }
" d4 K2 I/ O8 C4 a6 y事情变得有趣了& j" p5 m/ F" [& ?) ]# D. j# m
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。, I% p+ H. e* r/ Q- {* I9 ?
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来源：X- x1 |. x4 B. \, A3 x1 M P
$ m D5 f1 `2 g- H) h! ~根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。" r* S' m, r3 J5 ~' f. [
3 e& L! `8 |! @" V# j/ ZBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。: b% \1 y. P$ Y/ p
# t1 ?# X7 I: b w+ x0 f正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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3 p" I/ F( d1 A: ?2 y随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力/ {+ F$ }* q! d8 v/ S: ], T
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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! p- N+ G D0 [, D/ Z+ o来源：TradingView" j, A4 G3 P, `2 ]
" c% m( h' c! [! _; k; ~1 O0 n日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。( B/ K7 a6 V+ B% I, @
/ A, U: W5 U9 P; @然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。0 H) m( n1 ^; y Z5 b3 D- g5 Q9 g {
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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