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[真人] Win rate 87% 的打法 <中文> 續集
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18#
看不懂哦还得加强学习啊
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19#
是什么意思 没有理解到 请教~
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20#
还不能完全理解
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21#
不过 还是谢谢分享
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22#
还是没有看明白
头像被屏蔽
23#
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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24#
为了积分~我顶~~~
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25#
回复 1# wlcomp 3 }9 ?2 p4 j8 y: n# D$ ]2 m5 a8 Q

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* n! P' Q- Z4 u, @3 J: ]   老大,关于这个打法,我发表一点个人看法,如果错了别放心上:)
( {: ~, M+ y' o5 E5 ~3 b理论上:我认为不能够以1-0.5^3这种方式来算胜出概率,因为这个概率是PPPP/BBBB四个同时出现的概率(应当是0.5^4,同时算上庄闲就是0.5^3),而我们投注所建立的情况已经是PPP/BBB了2 }% Y7 q6 ^5 v/ v/ ], n
+ w) V+ K$ G5 w6 y+ S( r- i( W' {
所以基数就变成了PPP/BBB的个数,然后再去投注相反的话P与B 概率应该说是近似1/2的(虽然说不是独立事件,但是仅以三次结果判断下一次结果时那三次牌局对整靴牌局影响并不大,所以对下一手也是几乎没影响的). ?- W; v; Q# `/ i& I" @5 k

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1 ^% k9 }6 s: t  U2 P6 N然后带着这样的疑惑我进行了实践测试  T4 x/ [7 y$ X4 d2 R  F* X- _* e( p
测试了十万靴牌# H& @$ ]3 R9 X0 d5 k6 g4 H0 D+ s
结果如下:
3 I: r+ h+ n/ V* o. V  Y$ r(均是netural win的统计结果)
7 \) ]- v( j2 a; a( BBBB个数:19955  BBB+P个数:8920    平局:1871   输:9164           概率  0.4470  0.0938  0.4592
4 B* x4 t% T' m  r7 I, B% d5 O1 |1 D$ B  e0 s
PPP个数: 19854  PPP+B个数:9176    平局:1833   输:8845            概率   0.4622  0.0923  0.4455
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5 H  y7 U! `( n+ _; jPBP个数:19879  PBP+P个数:8916    平局:1893   输:9070            概率    0.4485  0.0952  0.45631 K: w+ u& x* p, z0 g/ X

! e0 v; M! q- x" k8 H' oBPB个数:19999  BPB+B个数:9230   平局:1935   输:8834            概率    0.4615  0.0968  0.44173 D# O9 n2 n8 C+ ]8 P7 k" y1 O/ ~) L

# n( H& j5 z+ F$ O5 v6 q, D8 B3 e% w" L: |
从这个结果看,确实是近似1/2的概率的8 H! w2 p+ U4 o2 C) Z" s
老大也应该可以测试一下,确认一下这个方法是否存在问题
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% B6 g8 L, k5 `当然,有可能是我把老大想法理解错了,如果错了,望老大海涵
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26#
真有一手!!!!!!!!!
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27#
学好菠菜文化..走遍天下不怕:P
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回复 25# huyunzhou ) \: v- j( l' h! y8 M
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& P. i; B2 ?: `+ W/ u! d  J    得到结论了吗   我也在疑惑当中·····???
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29#
回复 28# 投机客777
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, f( u; F! \2 q- d6 @& w) ^9 m  y7 z   我对这个打法的结论是 无效   可能是wlcomp老大的失误吧(也客能是我的理解错误)
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不过,wlcomp老大的后面的很多理论是可以使赢率变成正数的,尽管优势很小,但是足以战胜DC
( l5 t& f. P  d1 G$ v你坚持看完他的理论吧,绝对没错5 _  z8 y2 }1 E5 K+ G
(不过从你的话发现我们很像,,我对于DUBO的态度是,如果不能证明正收益率,我这辈子绝对不碰)
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30#
这个就是楼主所说的消牌,不消牌的百家乐了
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31#
本帖最后由 wlcomp 于 2011-12-1 18:31 编辑 & _' |" v3 G' X4 c

  ?) B8 U3 W% i; X% l9 m3 H) P回复 25# huyunzhou % \6 |1 B6 s& a0 Y  X
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   我終於知道你錯在那裡, 你是把4連5連....都算在裡面, 第一手必要不例牌, 之後三手例牌才能用
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32#
我还是不明白,到底6.7索了之后买什么
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33#
按照一靴牌除去和之后还有50手左右计算,80%的赢率就是命中40手,简单点说就是平均5手牌命中4手,也就骗骗刚玩百家乐的初哥。
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34#
是什么意思 没有理解到 请教LZ~
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