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上涨趋势回归、比特币11月将冲破新高、山寨季还有吗?(转)
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最近一个月,降息+大选的大环境让BTC从6万涨到接近7w的位置,MEME横飞,, A4 E& J; `2 e! W% }5 G
7 u" L$ I- G8 N- A0 WETF现货也在持续流入,走势也是非常强势的,大部分山寨币也接近筑底,算是新一轮周期的开始。6 u: @& F9 l; j$ O: d3 p) @
0 @# C2 P5 R3 m# l. L6 \这里依然看BTC往新高走,出现一批交易机会。: l8 }$ S& k/ B" u2 {" N" E
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接下来多个关键因素推动大量资金流入:
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8 K9 h- d2 L' a大选,双方候选人都支持比特币。3 x, Y3 c* I% Y. e' x" J# U! W( g
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美联储降息。% P2 ~, N6 I- O/ C2 L& S
* r, i; x9 h5 s1 @2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度的160亿美元FTX赔付。
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前三次大选前后,比特币都迎来了大涨,预计这届也是,不管谁当选总统,都不会改变比特币震荡上行的大趋势,只不过特朗普当选,BTC会涨得更猛,能大大缩短突破10万的周期。
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, T# D# I0 A% f1 f7 i如果你不了解洞悉主力的洗盘与出货要点,那么你将在币圈很难发财。3 P, M: |$ l- D$ |+ E
( |& \* c9 ]8 Y4 E$ l以下是一些关键技巧:
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* c, ~+ Y9 X7 \) K; W1- 关注成交量:洗盘时成交量通常会萎缩,而出货时则会放大。
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. m/ I! b2 v W) S n2- 留意币价位置:主力通常会在币价拉升 30%左右时进行洗盘,而当涨幅超过 60%时,就需要警惕出货的可能性。
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* U- {9 j6 f; V* g/ p$ C3- 分析分时图:洗盘时的分时图往往上蹿下跳,而出货时的分时图则相对平稳。4 ]! Q2 ?4 E9 y5 s
4 a5 ?1 D1 e' F& |/ N: A当前山寨市场行情走势各异,进入自身周期底部盘整的时间阶段也各不相同。抄底哪个山寨,以及判断该山寨是否已进入自身底部。0 ]3 T* P) q4 a8 p, z6 ~) t7 [
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10月即将结束,11月1号的非农数据可能是突破的关键,因为非农数据后5号就是大选,相信数据面不会难看,毕竟这是4年一政、权利交替的关键时期,哪怕是表面工作也是需要去维护的。在加上美股这两天提前下跌洗盘,也符合我前天的分析每一轮大选公布前2周,美股都有提前下跌洗一波,待到新总统上任,在释放利好,美股顺势再创新高。
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7 K; M2 L0 j9 o. ]5 H9 ` @比特币现在的走势基本上和美股挂钩,那么美股持续的创新高,那么比特币自然顺势突破前高,飞到更高的地方,所以11月份有很大的概率比特币会突破前高73880,到达75000,甚至80000,所以兄弟们接下来我们一起迎接比特币的春天吧。) ?1 Z$ q# u: _3 H6 k/ Z* n$ d
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虽然这轮比特币牛市跟90%的山寨都没什么关系,很是操蛋,但是只要比特币能够突破前高,至少山寨季还是有机会到来的。最近经常听到有人问eth为什么那么拉垮。* l7 T# q- `) ?; n. R! t6 p
* C7 j/ |# @0 w$ I) F" H毫无疑问,本质上是被资本冷落了。从3月中旬至今,从4k附近一路跌下来到最低饭2k附近基本被腰斩,如果不是9.18首次减息50个基点这个利好抽了一把,它就要直奔1600方向。这大半年时间里,每次大盘走回调,eth都是充当的急先锋,跌起来不输其他山寨。从这点可以看到它的弹性远不如以前。
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反观sol,从前年FTX暴雷黑天鹅飞出,跌到个位数后一路扶摇直上200,虽然最近半年内也接近腰斩,但弹性是很强的,同期逢高回踩的力度也远没eth大。两者一比较,就很清楚,这轮大周期资本青睐的是sol。
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sol 应该是第5个大机会(前4个分别是铭文、bome、pandora、goat)
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/ X: r* x, _9 C9 s当前 sol 日收入高达870万美元,这是一些头部L2几个月的收入,sol链的活跃程度,加上meme大赌场地位的稳固,以及后续还有一个ETF的巨大利好。sol的etf通过是时间问题,综合考虑基本面和etf的可能性,持有sol会是beta优选。2 \* `6 d5 |' q+ z6 u, _# l
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山寨季还有吗?7 @4 h0 x" L# l3 T3 A
& G5 O* M0 v5 ~3 r5 L( ?9 x1 k1.板块轮动的行情一定还有,放心。3 ^/ B. r. ^# P K
- U2 Y v# H! D# {/ k( t* G5 S2 q6 a2.大饼不创新高,各大山寨做市商不敢轻举妄动,只有少部分币在拉,大部分基本面趴在地上。- h5 r4 E4 h+ z x% S; K
! J( g( d/ @8 F& X' [3.千万不要看着别人的币拉了,就着急换(除非赔率性价比更高)。; B% o6 m% {/ c6 n. ^( m/ f
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未来就是你一卖他就开始拉,你一追涨它就开始回调,反复你将心态炸裂。
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现在做好仓位管理就可以了。
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