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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 / Y5 q. w; @- ]. |

8 n' n; Y3 G- J% [) P  `6 b$ ~8 h
7 o. W4 Y$ }7 N$ A4 T5 G& p只跟踪一个联赛
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+ E7 V' I9 ?9 j7 P$ Y& J全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
  c. a  W4 A/ v  h  R  Z. P; `9 _
8 }6 t9 T* g2 Q! t0 d三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，& W6 T9 o- }$ S; O/ z

( Y: J0 O5 i3 W* P$ {# X偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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! H. p- a; F" L方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
. F9 S; {6 g! w& [7 j
& W. ^9 S$ m# r然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，5 ]7 A: t# o/ m9 x+ |

; f5 h( L; \' k0 C8 [) q就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱4 H( _) J2 W( V  n
* n5 Q+ q0 C% r: ?% [7 j1 D
当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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( b! [7 b/ Q) k7 ]+ T' i2 ^$ a5 x7 J# [& A+ ^7 g, ^
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，" o* P( T; X! W
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，  H: r+ G+ @5 d5 d# T; ~0 Y0 }

: W6 e+ w6 x8 c但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。4 Y2 m- m( J8 E& q6 m, M
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# t+ I3 B# ~; ~1 {' ~0 K9 Q1 B/ s' X6 c* \$ x% ^- S
理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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3 G% e; t5 F/ z排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，, s( f3 R! {3 {5 x2 I4 K# y

5 }  L4 ~( v2 E5 F7 N7 W但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
6 C/ L1 I) Q; U) x& `
2 N, K2 U  {" C这比买国债存银行合算。
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, o! {1 A! Q( Y" E) J$ E在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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6 y) ]' s% Q3 _/ J几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。- B/ S% I/ u' ]# w+ B; v

0 L0 A3 ?% V4 [8 M. w  N: U9 h放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
+ x( v; V6 w+ v; p
- P7 ~# `( j$ m  m) q% S: N: ?就是回避了大的亏损，7 }, h6 M0 U/ e' W4 b* {9 V$ k. Q6 D

3 [* Q, M1 g" ~9 T( {5 W9 ^  b大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，4 d/ B0 ~& o% ?, j2 T$ ]' b2 @
  Y. w) |/ Z" B: A; E/ q
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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