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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 + y# ?1 R. f; Q  a
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只跟踪一个联赛
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& I2 }3 C( Y. w# I5 E3 @# K$ `全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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" f& a3 D' n/ X/ A( Y/ a方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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1 p2 ~' w2 x9 k. ?8 w) w然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，1 ?/ L$ Y( C0 @% L; U
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱: R! {+ C2 K. S' b

+ m' e$ b# p  h; c  [& q当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，/ F) j" o1 p9 K: A* _
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。& W# a: d; k1 Z! i" j: x! b; `
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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0 T9 j! Q8 p% h' [但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，0 x2 i8 x9 Z4 n# t2 [

9 I8 ~8 W" j4 X  H这比买国债存银行合算。
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( R: B* h3 d/ t( g% `在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，" x% P' S. x4 n8 e- b# k

1 R  P7 d" _6 [9 a' m' h/ H; `5 J几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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  S3 ~" T2 g: \: }2 }! P常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，+ G: r* S$ ?- l: m, k

8 x5 \+ {8 g: `2 s就是回避了大的亏损，# j& a0 A" {6 p( S! p/ z+ u' C/ O

5 W* L" U* m- M3 b大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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