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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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5 `7 {8 F. ~1 N( Q只跟踪一个联赛
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: j' [. R" r$ b5 C2 D5 W( }全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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- J% R* L+ b+ c$ x$ v& A2 @4 v0 o三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，0 H  B# ^$ K/ u: G: }3 u
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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! G' N: J. p0 \" k- `  K方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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$ ?" z6 x- H/ f2 L7 Z( _) z( f4 q然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱7 v* d# R% d: V3 y+ H: q) X. ?2 c
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目- [, t/ S+ l# g. }& X

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，+ G* Y6 S. j7 B! g
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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9 |1 I5 f( J+ {/ Y: ^9 r9 C0 N理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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" P) e2 X" w: m; }+ W8 i排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，' F# a  d8 L4 e4 z
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，9 V( R: h6 @" m: D# M' N# D, O8 R9 m
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。/ ]+ \/ i" }& E% h4 F4 x

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。' S+ B4 M. z- W- e' i' V' S* A

8 W4 w5 z& f) S) P5 H" \& @. N, ^放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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8 _7 X2 ?5 b  |# v; y* Z5 d就是回避了大的亏损，) \  l, m, G* ]+ E1 L4 \6 m

; K! Y& Z: {9 c+ K; W大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，. i+ i) J* c  j' y+ M) f
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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