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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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3 g! H. s; t" ~9 P只跟踪一个联赛
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7 {" s$ N! ?0 ^全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔: X0 s# k4 m+ l2 {! t, I# O( `
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，+ ^: ~# z, C' Y$ N' v: L6 z/ M
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）  V1 y% c; _6 k( S
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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6 D! L1 c/ u$ G# q: }2 e就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱  c8 r: R0 J1 R# e( @0 O. I, |

# Q8 \* [! X( t( J$ A% i7 \当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目4 v8 x  U2 r9 ^  x

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* `- v. j/ A/ {0 b0 [亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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5 e, m6 D+ Y/ ?3 M) @5 z! E, r而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，$ P+ V0 U& R, k
" m8 l) O/ T$ t$ X6 m5 ^( S
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。; Y, A& a, z5 w

* Z7 i) n2 q; Z' ^# A! R0 X' r5 b/ F4 X9 }* f7 N

& l7 Q# R* F2 c2 t7 n! B# [理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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3 ~* k0 l1 u, v排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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  H) z, v3 L  V. [6 s  j7 q! ^! @但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，( h, y1 f4 _2 }$ |* h- B

- Q, a8 E& y+ t6 i& U这比买国债存银行合算。3 Z+ c+ b, g8 r3 G7 A
$ Y4 e7 ]! |1 Z2 t( {6 B
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，. d1 Z4 E: e; {* Q
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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5 @7 Z% e& @3 O! j; g常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，& }* q' o/ o7 ]

- F! F8 b* C4 n- P( g2 v就是回避了大的亏损，
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/ B6 w2 j# r5 v  H* t/ ]3 q$ \大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，1 g# [* u" ^* J& S& Y& B# C1 x
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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