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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
7 A0 J: {3 d5 A( X! m
" I4 h c/ f, ~. o认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
' a Z l: T5 Y9 I
4 {" _+ h L% {2 N# H# k6 h而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
5 l( a8 u( _) g% ]6 ~- u+ I, ~
的千禧一代。
% U& e4 d. v7 T1 H5 w从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
, h- I$ d6 @: @" P1 G5 Y, D
: I. G. j3 r1 q5 O3 q的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
" T9 ?; d9 `* i1 U, [( u" Y1 x( y# b5 @7 [
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加) o2 @8 N6 \1 B) p( j
2 r5 P* X7 ]5 Z/ G; I! u密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据/ B& Y4 a) |/ z& v2 J- l; R0 C
, e4 n. |% n$ n* C9 u8 M
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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/ e$ c3 L, [ V/ C6 t1 s2 R的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
" i$ ]) i9 |. q& T: N& j3 L, H
* a6 u; k, r4 n' T# N& o. s( e2 P报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；3 j2 k$ a! f1 d
( I6 s9 s) D! }, k( z1 R8 i5 U
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为- \2 }& O4 K! k. K% J
% t5 ?3 G& o: r y7 m: g+ I, F
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
1 N3 w" e, s. S# Y- c
b n Z& o. l1 c据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降% p. K! Y5 x- e1 n9 y/ C
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。- Z5 G* |7 z4 P" |) p
& o6 d; r) U. t1 G/ ~, e8 L' ]与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密" k" @) I& b# |; ]: A& Z
2 f$ N& Y2 ^) ?! S6 {7 z& D/ B
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富- v* x: y3 @) n" |
7 f7 {% ?) |/ A* u( I传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
* u9 Q7 {8 U4 R& W/ e8 y
) T$ s) k/ v' ]% J/ a3 F到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
& p' R3 J6 q1 K! ^8 {; e
' K& ? e$ l! k, _, q# I代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
3 _6 [; Z; d# Q1 n8 T2 }7 |3 b5 [( k9 S- f, {4 D( {3 I
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
/ z7 F$ _) ]* O/ _, m4 g5 s2 p, B0 V% m8 V u
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货8 F F" c* i3 ]' V& o
\! S% [. H0 [. T3 O* r% a5 p
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致0 C0 {3 N5 o2 d: G+ G" S; r! T+ {
: a8 I) m% ]8 G$ M7 _. K7 a
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富: R7 @; i( T* P5 e
: h' u; W5 k Q, v" K/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
" W; _! ?' h! d9 h4 O) q* v) l- {$ A/ Y+ c- y2 Z
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