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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
* b4 f4 E& X% z$ w7 L6 g; J9 N2 I" i6 [+ e3 B. ^) r
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，, d( |' N# s. G& ]
7 M! v2 F) o( ?" f$ G& _
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富" s/ s; X- T9 x& @# W: E2 n
6 s' W" c9 R7 `1 v9 k ?的千禧一代。$ y3 o! U9 e- r5 l, p. C7 v
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB( _- [" G9 ~! S7 F5 i- {# j# }8 j
. |2 B& K! v; Y. [! l; p2 s
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
5 x+ ]/ ]" ^1 b1 U( |
+ I$ O2 b, ^) s: g0 [5 n; n; l5 C* V 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加+ P2 J( W7 I; T7 w2 M
. i8 D5 ^8 _8 C# Y9 I
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据* ` k6 B1 S! P; n. e" D" s
4 ~) Q, {2 b6 D4 h5 i. D; [《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成) Z: x' s# ] V2 G9 {! d1 _
& H0 p5 a1 v, R |" Z2 Y的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
: I6 w! c' |: c+ j9 Q4 w& M8 T2 ~
& {; W$ T( r) `0 [2 k" E* l" L报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
" H K9 Z% m4 S Y5 W0 p$ Q4 Y( R. q
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为+ I2 c W% _' M8 \) q+ X I
& J& c7 i! s% @! N% \ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
7 E" o) v: \4 r8 \
# ~- b# x4 ` C. \; V @$ @5 N: |据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降4 W$ w; k; u. e# H9 e, ?
' c. f" W, k: S- p息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
+ |# l, K5 I* e6 E# S
. s% h* R) i+ i与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
; r$ m. d6 M, ]+ ?. {4 p! a! B C8 d) _: C4 m8 o
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富4 |! o' ` T! ^7 V
& H- ]$ o6 x# d! g- o* n
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
! k8 ~+ b. r" s5 g1 _6 g( k
9 V( s0 @ ?/ e到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一. K6 m! m9 \' S Z% C; y
3 }0 y/ b# D! Q& n5 A$ a9 T$ A代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成8 M9 T3 s0 `" `2 ?: z3 C
+ B0 X3 {1 D1 l3 n2 W6 J7 _' e( L本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
# M9 G# w! G9 g2 V. C1 |+ H- y9 b* q3 C& j
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货) ?% S* W7 `& [6 `# O- R8 d
" M3 e f7 z- z' U9 T币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
4 `8 ^4 n" c+ H! ~* {2 S, S7 ?/ l* N5 P; @- C* X8 E3 T2 J B
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富/ X2 @& U: E( _% E4 d: ?
# U5 ?7 X/ R8 X+ h2 U6 N
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
3 W _) z. w9 V* [4 h. s3 a: g
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