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8 E: ^& [. _5 p/ a6 v; ]加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
! q; U8 n2 A+ d# yDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
9 s7 ^* P. \+ t% p( c o+ G衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。! _& ]) @6 `( n7 Z. l1 D, P
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
$ h* ~$ z8 O6 ]! I q: b9 H! }BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。2 E, m7 G' m& A& [7 N
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
' I6 E5 [& u8 X- |- f9 k* M- H5 N% G2024年4月第四次减半9 p* [* r5 p, }9 S0 _
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
# V! i* W, _5 Y' ^/ d可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
' v# N1 A0 h, `# \& ~# ?$ W针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。5 W3 A, x1 s8 F! ?; n7 T, |
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
3 h2 @3 U8 i1 h, x1 Kfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。. ]; a8 r( |/ u r
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
5 _, w4 o2 P: ^+ [诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。% l1 v n2 f- y
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁9 |% a9 l* k7 C: [9 P, e; ] P" P! N' D
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
$ w2 y$ Z" `- b2 B3 K% s, v" ]金融(TradFi)产品。* d3 M0 a1 a/ g( o% C0 y" d) @
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
' A6 R7 u% U* K2 }# W) e- q链桥」的项目。9 i C2 O$ t3 b9 I
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
2 q2 H: X1 B1 ]模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
+ v$ L% Q& Q F6 Y" X等。
. a- p* u1 @0 @. iPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用* \) q7 w* N- I, a
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。% @4 F0 Y5 V. K, v5 H( L* x4 ~' q
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
2 n* [; ~' t, XPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位: C) L- B5 N# [
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。 l/ D' a) i3 m# ~8 B" D- E
Pantera点名了几个项目：9 R, `3 b9 W8 H- j0 m
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图$ w* g; z: k, X8 T
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台. T' N y/ ~. X/ g0 @
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
& F# z' s, w, N. K+ P. @The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
8 E0 C) o$ T9 R& `7 y+ {$ R* g+ kRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
. d* t3 n# Y5 d% @3 P六、小型公链需专注特定应用
N; n$ ~+ J7 U& ~- @Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
& n3 d# [, A/ \: P至能直接与L2竞争。4 J) `" B9 {3 W
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
- q4 o1 L! F# |) _Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
, D/ E+ K. V/ k6 x" O成为「应用链」。) g% o% ~. v9 [) P0 F! C
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。$ a4 S6 |! R% T0 d9 V* f
$ o- ?: t) g" F4 r* D
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