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- m. Z" p1 A- O8 f0 {8 L$ H
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
2 t7 S; `$ Y% v% fDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，2 Q& ^* H. \% y8 \
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
2 w4 D _- n( f; o' S, y* t' s6 z一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
7 I1 D8 W% v* _& A3 NBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。1 i4 w, |% ?8 O1 g; G& p
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
d9 t" H$ @8 |2024年4月第四次减半( P S% p; F/ }' G6 U
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF: Z m8 `9 }. A
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)8 W8 } P, B' _& S
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。8 I$ |9 ~& w% N# |! I7 t' _
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
n$ r) o N: U v Efriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
3 c* D5 e" \. u( M/ g6 FPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
3 l6 z8 R7 `. X, Q, y诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。2 s- C. B9 `$ t
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
( l3 @! S9 H( r# ]% ~ a, B除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
2 z+ s' y9 d. f7 D金融(TradFi)产品。
/ _9 w/ v9 S6 y1 K% B如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨' `( U( r# P+ [
链桥」的项目。- i$ b$ `1 n. w# t- g
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉& m3 D3 ^3 y- p$ h3 y) j
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
' z$ g; Z: o9 {+ |0 q等。
& p" u9 ?/ ^2 }Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用! P8 w* Y) v- {7 n' y7 {. @% q
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。# Q G( ~1 |$ C* z( d
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN5 Z! T( g/ }7 Y# D# d
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
$ p* j" x, N3 f; I+ L1 p数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。3 M) ]/ N2 U. e" q5 c
Pantera点名了几个项目：2 q! p. s7 U* C# p" S, V% q; C
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
& }! m5 j3 ~# `; _9 y* E9 Q0 c tBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台: I& E" P/ k3 N6 |1 h
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
# @9 B$ y, ]* O3 }- u9 f' v: j. q7 IThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划6 c) V& ]" f+ E: Q9 J
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
5 P5 f4 j2 j; n4 `六、小型公链需专注特定应用& _3 {' ^' J7 C4 A/ G
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
7 \& n! r6 e6 I! O9 I' h" r; k至能直接与L2竞争。
3 o, I) Z# n M- k* R也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。+ B/ ^& y4 [. O Q8 S
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地& D* S9 q- q; L! t
成为「应用链」。
K3 j, }( X: k& f6 o4 l+ O" e4 D事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。2 Y2 W/ W8 i1 ^; \' \# X) F
" M' U. t7 Q9 A- M& U
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