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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。4 u+ A4 t& o' u1 z* R* c
2 W$ z$ Z$ x5 V5 [! y 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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, L0 ?% a. m& @* W" c a2 I Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。% l5 q2 h2 l, ?- Q
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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4 W5 H+ q+ v3 g4 t5 G) j! d 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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5 }0 D/ I+ E3 `& O0 S2 _2 ~ 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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4 ]6 {1 Q C! J8 m4 R# f7 u: U. `9 M价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。: m' K4 s0 p! ?# [
" G$ X% i# h1 T “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”+ ^& y/ S' Q- [3 r
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。3 B8 s4 Q- c) R; N% D0 N( P
, w1 x5 L9 \/ J( |! U2 g “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在# S3 d/ Z' P$ X" G/ _5 ?5 b
& T% @+ r' B" l+ n: B9 p) r积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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- _( e( j6 U; |; v% X 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。% s$ r: v0 M( M* r, o
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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% m5 W; s8 k' y' M 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。( E- `9 p: g6 y1 x& K
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”& y( L6 U7 b) }
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