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[lastpost] => 2818458 星桥资本:BTC估值压缩 下行风险可控（转） 1774997280 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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: N; j( @) {4 e# Z' } 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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2 U2 m1 T7 C' k3 o6 G/ r8 h 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。& Y, q- w f$ I( r7 y2 s
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/ K a: w2 q( q 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。3 S8 C; l8 y1 ~' @9 \5 @8 B
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，) l( Y0 a# h7 ]- N* X
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间- k5 j2 t3 g: l2 m Y
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”3 U5 ^) K5 J8 g! j6 M
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。9 _/ Y2 N, ]# L# v0 A }! y, P
- Q: j( g5 w! F' o8 T “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在- D& t9 Z. W# B/ @0 u
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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1 {/ n2 I4 z& \" ~1 g* i E6 h 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。$ C- ?3 M4 E* P6 {9 I# b9 X- [
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。+ i& c4 W# j( R g- X# F$ d: ]# M# a' J
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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* U9 [7 s/ W: u9 U2 q 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”! s) E& C: W3 C+ l$ X" N* p
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