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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。 H7 S+ h; r& a Q# q
( X6 U4 ]( b! B+ s! q- Z
% R: u% E4 s5 }4 g西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:' F) S9 X, q4 E6 _ {6 z) J3 p+ W: n0 ~
" S' {9 K6 D" p0 x$ L- x
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 Z! I8 u8 D7 x4 c4 d
5 B- h: x y8 h, R) s$ @; Z
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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) O/ k0 f+ V# e. y盈利可能性# v# N8 v" k) ]" `5 c& S" `( @
9 y' j6 }+ @ F% m对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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& W; v/ G$ _: P1 F+ s增值
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9 ~6 S0 C0 f8 ?: D许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。& r" h# z9 n# E. u ]9 Y% N( }
3 S# @. r& K0 H你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?, ^/ D4 m# _# n" r; S8 y3 S* L
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么7 s3 C+ |. ]- {2 T# E6 u
4 I' s4 L9 S$ W40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
4 W: |! y" b! V0 n3 P60%的机会你会一无所有9 T0 E) M" `( l$ a
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 ?' a. ^1 K; \2 D由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注 j* C1 q, _ s( Z; Z3 h# h
* T$ _/ P3 Q5 B. M% _凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。7 j( K% `2 T; ?( s, a2 }
' _" E7 d {. l( U. \公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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. ]' V3 }$ q/ ^; N7 B/ ~A=博彩资金+ ^; z; y. Y! i' m
P=获胜机会0 k3 k, N+ r2 m
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金); z6 e1 R9 B2 i4 ]
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。- D2 a: }8 P) M$ D& R. I* _
2 C( Q+ Q1 P/ \5 \0 D* S1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5): V, O; ~0 j* e' a' t7 o. y1 F
, A; y6 s* Z" M/ L5 {+ vA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)% s- N x7 V& p
6 L0 |1 E' S6 b& `1 ~/ u( nA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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: G4 l% j) ^# {. f2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3). r9 u( D( O% V Z* r
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)# ^7 H# o1 }3 ~( c
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)& @- K8 Z5 v5 q9 h: \' I4 F% Z
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)4 D9 f1 p: x* a/ j
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A= -0.2 " L0 s3 O: k! p
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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