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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; H: H; U0 Q' d$ l
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: Z. V& E7 m5 _) H& }- |西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:9 V1 t3 S6 l {7 i$ c+ Q
. s4 e" q3 x9 A1 j8 {& o8 L% f皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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: T l7 n& n- R很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 U( B& ^% Y$ n3 u: l
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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d2 _: d# U) {4 ^+ _以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?+ q) d& s- _9 g+ c$ ~" j
$ e8 }4 |" l' m% m. c" [2 E7 e- W( z: z& w, u6 w1 c" d
盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。5 f/ u) h* s% t. D
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增值" ?# ~+ }1 h7 G; Z6 l8 U6 U
) Z# E: w. i+ r* U% y1 L3 p许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。: i( t! i8 k, X7 V
" d: x. m! T5 @4 k0 G
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 , r3 u U! ^( [, U
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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. Q# O( K9 T/ _$ E40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- _. E. ^7 `6 N. r2 u. P
60%的机会你会一无所有! T7 u$ @$ T8 U
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 * ~! g& P& \: g/ l6 W# I
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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, @& P' J0 u) X. {增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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7 L: w' ]7 n4 C7 m" Q+ U. Q凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)+ h0 x3 l0 w- ^. }8 _
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A=博彩资金
3 w: M% Z; R7 n$ X) e: z$ N9 OP=获胜机会
, d7 w$ |0 k7 l0 B, X5 o) n/ vO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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$ I6 a4 c- V, P, v9 E好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。' W% H2 A1 P+ T5 k
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
3 ^% a0 [/ u' w; K! G ?; f( z* b8 M' m; D1 V7 X% n0 o' k" i
A=0
+ L5 y0 r/ H4 a8 B( d. J U0 K7 Q; t5 }9 R) c1 B
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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& F* J4 |! ~! B4 n2 _2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)8 h) R/ Z% f: d# S: s5 e* N
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A=0.1- \* b2 y& Q3 v6 f
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去( |6 O. H0 n& I) w
3 F: Z" i5 N; d! ~" p3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)7 X; I7 Y) J3 p
: G( l0 `7 |+ x2 q! ?" `; E5 rA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)% ]7 b* i; `' m; U7 C% e" g
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好2 b0 x& ]! [7 t! ~. N
2 r) p; F8 \( F* J3 e第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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