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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ n {! r- B# w, }1 Q
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1 x) \ e- r( w8 b西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率$ [( [ g6 P/ s; A
0 m$ Q% R# }$ U5 Y5 V' g4 X' f( q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
/ j0 R% a% O; m7 R( b# d* U5 Q- ?, ]9 c- q2 B( }) `
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 u/ F$ g' y4 l G2 U
4 s& ~" u% _! N) d
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 Y# j" ~+ c1 L m+ a
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)( t7 \: ]6 N5 j- n' d) P
# n9 ?3 ]" ~# L& @& W6 a6 L) J
/ a% c! u$ q" ~以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
. r* |6 _5 h; a" W- g& W* k$ V2 M- u9 m
6 p- c: V1 @) w8 j9 n盈利可能性/ _. w% V/ P; g y' @- i3 H- S
# p1 y! I$ ?1 r/ }. q. D对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。- W- S0 `5 W* m; O. \
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增值5 F9 t4 \( z3 l; `
! q( P" P# y- [许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
$ ~$ G* c" D3 O
0 b0 Y: \( r* q7 n9 }2 n, U你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
) @8 S4 O0 d/ c2 B4 u" u6 d0 a$ C& ]* c# l6 b, f4 v& [- C5 ?# f
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
7 C! w' f) H: m v$ p/ B% \- V; x% ~+ d( v& E& l9 ^" Y% \
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么7 b- X6 V- ^( @7 B: W9 b
8 F4 u9 V" R% n) ?) i9 z. L' B! K40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
2 z7 x* i" H7 o0 k- C, y* \60%的机会你会一无所有' F, T( F: f" I) l
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) T: p5 M( i, n5 B& {5 j; C) O ?
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
* T; n- ]6 z0 Z4 R/ j- ]) A+ j7 U/ m8 j; i! ]
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。7 V0 T4 F0 k( B4 x# t" B- x
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基于增值的投注+ M* y. y6 D" O- s. r$ O9 {, u* r
9 i1 S' N" v1 A7 W: D1 B
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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) J! S$ I, q2 d公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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0 t4 W4 M; g: O W& m6 o4 {3 I9 dA=博彩资金$ u0 q r1 N6 ?9 t. n
P=获胜机会 }1 m- V+ t' t0 O3 j
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
! h9 m4 ] p9 }
p: s, s& Y" E首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。/ u3 P4 A7 L. o! G ~' S. r% {% D
5 M& w. a" V1 D+ M7 E, I5 \- y1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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9 D/ Q, B+ K7 R7 OA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5) ?5 U0 G3 u* r) j. b# E3 m
1 ?% B3 N9 q; p0 oA=09 B3 a. J) ~5 X& f1 b; W
+ i) M9 \% T7 F+ C结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢) \; T |. A- Y: U( h
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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& ^8 D( v( C9 V3 j: [7 [1 c2 cA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
& H) O. P# S G5 h" |
% k% v/ e% R/ i% d( g' O4 |8 ZA=0.1
1 q' E& `6 M% i
4 i* G5 J. s0 Y, y9 q& P, @1 N结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去7 F0 j- d' p& u& Z8 O2 v/ z
! G' `7 C1 H5 ~8 s* @) {3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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' g3 C6 c! [$ \2 M- fA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' ~# B! u% _! K0 V
( [3 A4 f1 I6 @, @+ y) lA= -0.2
- _+ l2 @. t4 ]+ |" |" c% e0 ?$ q! R2 M& K& ~/ ~. x8 R( ^; M+ H0 _
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
/ b8 v# ^* A$ [6 Z W' j# U" A! L
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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