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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
" S* E. m, }* x8 c$ I' a余勋也不例外、 # ?1 W* f- }5 ?1 \: t5 T# r
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 0 U3 w9 ^% f1 W5 z* e/ e$ d) ^
是保经济的重要决策！ # Q" @9 W+ b4 ]0 o _" Z
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
) v* h7 g4 o, E% w$ p& q低点26700-32400、 ; t1 U. x3 ?6 J; a, v& o: H" i5 u
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
$ F: v( h. {& ~( b但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
2 e* p5 D6 M( r- A( Q' I大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 . k# F/ E- _: s3 [ _9 z
涨幅就已回撤过半！ . ?8 d+ M/ q) p/ {4 a |
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 4 h5 b6 _( T+ X1 s+ y
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
L; v$ O x( q: w5 z3 V其次、
2 G* U* N) E- ]' b8 q缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 , D& {( l/ `, f8 a8 E: C! x8 P' q" q
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 0 o7 Z+ o+ T! e; n8 W" X5 A" K
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
2 o' e' i9 n9 l; l7 d美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 4 \0 ]$ Z2 D/ @8 d1 x( E
但回到币圈、
0 k' d( g! M; p+ J/ u6 {4 z去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
j( C$ [& [! f2 w8 U在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
2 X: m, \$ v+ l- w& n8 E, ~& s) f而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 4 t% Q$ \/ E9 C" M1 t9 P
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
% Y7 I; Y2 r5 N+ T* Z4 K缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 + P L( a. x/ H/ s/ F- c
对当前的底部、影响有限。
$ ^. }3 z( b2 ]6 O/ k6 S) P& Q) s6 R最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
# Q! D F' x! X4 D- {3 x0 J' k所以27000、即是 , U8 q( a& A) ?& i1 D0 Z8 x1 z! H
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） , f# o" D! X5 Q
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
7 p( R& e7 h% Y" d& j8 P8 h) m) o也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 5 d# J( D' A; e' l' q+ I3 }
由此得出的结论是、
. c, Y- Y9 [1 c& T: ]& v加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 8 j/ _# ?+ ?' ?3 ~" j N
点位不会出现太大偏离。
, w. j4 a# m# |; F综合以上、 3 F8 {# Y5 Y2 a
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ) C4 ^# `9 d( t9 @' g' W
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 4 v7 I& a- @( J0 f" J' m, Q
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
( D6 H. r& \# F抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 0 Q' A" r3 N5 z- N2 N
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
) Y/ l# b% ] ?( r2 X9 i1 k即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
$ d( N7 T- X3 W. R美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ) ^1 ~$ s' C* b
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
# `0 N! d6 |) I大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ! m: z+ q7 @: h# Y2 u
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
M/ N& c. O/ e9 l& \) A5 S* h高空需至31700-32000间布局、
' @3 N& p* M3 [1 m: N+ R0 Z' K$ A反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
4 f& D+ r9 u3 m5 x- N, G/ [! ?得不偿失。 8 i% }% [- Q% \; l. b, m
来源：金色财经 |
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