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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
$ v6 p+ D8 `5 M; r% D$ x余勋也不例外、
/ C( k2 J; U- p' G4 A其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 + ~$ W' N+ l3 H2 `( }
是保经济的重要决策！
% W. C- Q, x A. b) [' M. b' e这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 1 s) v0 Z2 }" z4 I F0 r" i
低点26700-32400、 8 Y2 W5 E; C) E
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 1 d2 A1 }7 v4 P
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
7 q) Q) g7 f2 F, |- g$ _5 m$ h大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
- U: U" u' u5 j& z9 S涨幅就已回撤过半！ 8 G5 V8 L# p4 z; `) ]8 L
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
6 m" w3 ^1 u) y4 m不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 : u& w- g0 f( W/ u
其次、
) X+ ?; Y ]% P k" J$ l, ?- P缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ; q, T( L2 g/ A
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 2 v. R7 `2 G" d j3 x7 Q& l2 f
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
" Q$ j! s, V: B美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 2 w$ v* S5 n( P
但回到币圈、
7 ?, n+ K* Y" F( I去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
/ }- G. k2 B+ h& B `8 I7 t在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + m! t6 I- O m+ @) f/ U% K
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 5 Q! A5 k$ m/ D H. P
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
6 ~# s$ `8 T6 C3 p缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 p2 x. ?& f7 v
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ; g6 h6 W# K4 u5 y# P0 d* p
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 4 H% u. A1 J% H, R; P6 K4 Z9 K
所以27000、即是
+ b9 f0 T" g* y! x+ E去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
( y8 h; h7 E7 R8 q% ~ x& u同时还是去年放水初期低点、
5 Z( D0 w3 b' X0 `$ n. b: p也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 & Z; h: G; T0 {/ U2 _+ c
由此得出的结论是、
- S, t2 y" N1 I: c5 y! t加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
+ n$ T- y% l# I; `点位不会出现太大偏离。
* p; I. ` n* m4 U* O3 y: c- F' L综合以上、 " Y6 @% F7 U3 B. q/ ^0 \
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 . r1 L$ v) G4 l/ p; M
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 + I1 [ Z/ m: z: Q
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 2 D0 o: M" u- t; W- i0 x# [
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
+ S5 Q8 K! `) d8 `! U+ M0 Z那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
) d- s" n/ M9 _/ H6 l- n即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
) n* [- ~" C% ~) ^美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ' A) l) r( m8 p7 l- V; `
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 9 h( B( x$ H+ A+ h( e% s; U9 Z
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
) q& H& X, _& T. P逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
9 c4 p" w0 S$ m5 R1 l+ }高空需至31700-32000间布局、
5 \4 J1 y- N8 U( j4 c反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 * D# w8 g' g* J x6 O T5 y2 _
得不偿失。 . e+ u! ]+ Z3 D& V# U! C
来源：金色财经 |
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